FanPost

Statheads' Guide to SFs

I thought with all the chatter we've had so far about acquiring a SF, it might be worthwhile to put together some listings of how various guys we've talked about come out in a couple of popular stathead ratings, using 06-07 numbers.

Specifically, I figured I'll list the NBA Eff rating (taken from NBA.com), Hollinger's PER, and  Win Score/48 (from http://www.jasonchandler.com/basketball/index.php, using the Wages of Wins system).  I'm including Ime, just to see what the scale of the change would be between a very hardworking journeyman and the starter quality or allstar quality names we're bandying around.

EFF (EFF/48):

21.3 (26.17)    Rashard Lewis
21.1 (27.42)    Paul Pierce
21.1 (25.76)    Lamar Odom
20.7 (25.30)    Caron Butler
20.1 (26.32)    Gerald Wallace
18.2 (22.31)    Mike Miller
16.5 (25.96)    Corey Maggette
16.3 (21.25)    Josh Childress
15.2 (19.92)    Tayshaun Prince
13.8 (18.60)    Richard Jefferson
13.6 (24.62)    Andres Nocioni
9.80 (16.46)     Ime

A couple of noteworthy things - Tay Prince scores a little low here since he's pretty much just a scorer; he's below average on other production.  Childress, Nocioni, and Corey should really be playing more minutes by this measure; their EFF/48 is as high as the bigger name allstars.  I didn't feel like listing multiple years, but Richard Jefferson had a down injury year, as I'm sure everyone has heard a million times already.

PER:

21.73    Paul Pierce
20.78    Rashard Lewis
19.83    Gerald Wallace
18.67    Corey Maggette
18.41    Caron Butler
16.50    Mike Miller
16.24    Josh Childress
16.20    Lamar Odom
16.01    Tayshaun Prince
15.69    Andres Nocioni
13.88    Richard Jefferson
12.09    Ime

PER is more scoring centric than some of the other measures, I think.  It's not my favorite, but it's a popular metric.  15 is the average player in this system.

Wins/48:

0.247    Gerald Wallace
0.218    Josh Childress
0.207    Rashard Lewis
0.186    Paul Pierce
0.180    Mike Miller
0.178    Lamar Odom
0.171    Caron Butler
0.161    Corey Maggette
0.131    Tayshaun Prince
0.097    Ime
0.093    Andres Nocioni
0.034    Richard Jefferson

A very interesting measure, that focuses on shooting percentage, turnovers, free throws, and rebounding much much more heavily than other systems.

Wages of Wins is a somewhat controversial Moneyball-type method of assessing the wins attributable to statistical production.  People who tend to do well on this model are high percentage shooters who get to the line a lot, fill up stat lines with rebounds and steals, and don't turn the ball over, like KG dominates this field the last few years.  The players who sink on this metric are chuckers who turn the ball over, like Iverson who shows up as a very average player using this model.

So who?
A couple of things jump out at me.  First of all, I don't think anyone's surprised that Paul Pierce, Gerald Wallace and Rashard Lewis show up high on all of these lists.  These guys are studs, and I'd be thrilled to have any of those three wearing red and black.  For these guys, I'd pay a pretty high premium, Zbo + other assets (Jarrett Jack or Sergio, or a 1st round pick).

Secondary targets for me would include Childress and Nocioni.  Childress looks great on both per 48 numbers (EFF/48 and Wins/48) but average on PER.   Nocioni had an off year with injury issues, but still did pretty well in PER and EFF/48, but not hot on Wins/48.  Either of these guys getting starter minutes as the second or third option are very promising, although hardly can't-miss propositions.  For either of them, I'd trade Zbo for them plus assets - a pick or other quality role players.  A good rebounding backup PF or C would work.

All of these guys are major upgrades to Ime.  Ime has performed very well and really helped keep us afloat, but he was an undrafted journeyman who bounced around for a reason; he's got limited skills but is a great hustle guy.

Finally, the last thing to note is that none of these measures really adequately gauge intangible defensive play.  They all include rebounding, steals, and blocks, but those don't really measure things like Tayshaun's very solid position defense that doesn't rely on gambling for steals and blocks.  I think he's a bit better a player than shows up on these measures based on his solid play.  Still not a high priority target for me though.

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