we need to lose a couple more games

by ssa400 on Mar 5, 2007 4:02 PM PST

i think we'd be best off with the 6th worst record in the league. that would give us a 10.7% chance to win the lottery. Not great, but that's a nice balance between our team trying hard and still having somewhat of a shot in the lottery. As of right now we only have a 2.8% chance or something. So losing those couple more games and increasing our odds 5 fold seems to be worth it.

any thoughts?

i got those numbers from espn's lottery machine thing.

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I'm 100% with you

I've been saying the same thing lately. We've proved our point, we've improved since last year, so why not have a shot at getting one more piece of the puzzle? Oden or Durant would look good in the black and red, and they could be had with a couple of losses.

by robrun2 on Mar 5, 2007 4:08 PM PST reply actions

If the basketball gods ...

are with us, we'll win it no matter what. Though we don't have to get the top pick to "win." The 2nd and 3rd picks are up for grabs as well. This page http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/NBA_Draft_Lottery shows a significant drop off of percentages to win any of the top picks after the 7th position in the lottery, so I'm hoping we at least end up there. It's still possible, too, what with Ray Allen dropping 30 pt. games and Philly playing very well lately. Though I am worried at how poorly GS and Minny have been playing--they could easily pass us up before the end.

by bfan on Mar 5, 2007 4:23 PM PST reply actions

We've said it before...

... now, once again: Winning begets winning. Losing begets losing. Don't worry - there will be enough losses ahead. The schedule is not THAT friendly. Virtually all NBA level players come from winning programs. It's in their DNA to win and not lose. They will be in every game to win it. Good things always come to winners. We've got a savvy guy in Pritchard (who is a winner, by the way) and an owner who has repeatedly demonstrated a willingness to open his wallet. We'll do fine in the draft.

Play to finish as well as possible. Then deal with the draft.

It's possible that our best chances at improvement would come through a trade(s). We're long on youth and inexperience and short on veteran leadership.

"...though you may fail...aim at something high." Henry David Thoreau

by Dr Dave on Mar 5, 2007 5:22 PM PST reply actions

Bingo

They found Sergio with the late pick last year and they can do it again.

A team full of players with great character would find tanking an unacceptable option.

by bbfred on Mar 5, 2007 6:07 PM PST up reply actions

no no

not tanking. i'm just saying, i would definitely not be sad if our record was a little worse than it is right now.

by ssa400 on Mar 5, 2007 6:29 PM PST up reply actions

no

Win as much as possible, our dignity means more than lottery crapshoots. We've tanked enough the last three years, now that we finally have a team that's on the rebound I don't want to see them lose a single game more than they have to. In an allegedly horrible NBA draft we got 3 legitimate pieces, there's stars all over the top20 in the draft. Not worried.

by isaacjoe on Mar 5, 2007 5:32 PM PST reply actions

Most of what you want will happen without help

Philly has won 4 straight. Celtics have won 4 straight. Okafur will be back in the Charlotte lineup any day. Seattle is 6-4 in it's last 10.

Blazers will finish with the 5th or 6th most ping-pong balls in the lottery without outside intervention. The bad teams in the East are getting wins playing other bad teams in the East, and Seattle is going to win more than us down the stretch as long as they stay healthy.

by Blazers Nation on Mar 5, 2007 6:31 PM PST reply actions

I wonder

if anyone from #5 to #10 would be willing to swap picks with us if we gave them Travis Outlaw and cash.

I feel like teams will be less than willing to trade around in the lottery this year.

- Sam

by Samuelson on Mar 5, 2007 7:42 PM PST reply actions

Outlaw is a RFA at the end of the season

and can no longer be traded by the Blazers until he signs a new contract. Not sure if you can do sign-and-trades with RFAs. Know for sure that you CANNOT trade the "right of first refusal" or the Bird rights of an unsigned FA.

Since the FA market doesn't open until after the draft, it's safe to say that no Outlaw trades will occur. (The Blazers can start trading once the season ends, but I don't believe they can do anything with their FAs).

by EngineerScotty on Mar 5, 2007 9:27 PM PST up reply actions

I agree

that intentional losing is out the window, as I've said many times. But I feel what you're saying and I agree with that too. I said from the very start of the season that it won't make ANY difference in the long run whether we finish 9th worst or 7th worst in the league. Nobody will be able to hang their hat or learn anything more from two extra spaces. Out of the playoffs is out of the playoffs. There's a big difference between 7th worst and absolute worst in terms of morale and not falling apart and such, but that's not what we're looking at here.

If I had my wish it's that we'd play every game as hard as we can and wring the most out of every one of them, but the basketball gods would be kind enough to have us lose enough anyway to get a decent chance at a lottery miracle.

I don't think this is exactly what Stern had in mind when he approved the lottery though. Now instead of only fans at the bottom of the league blessing losses anybody who's going to miss the playoff is looking at them with semi-acceptance. If there were no lottery, or even a better lottery system, half the league wouldn't be having this same argument every month and we'd only hear the words "tanking" and "losing to get a better spot" in very limited context, if at all.

--Dave

by Dave on Mar 5, 2007 10:19 PM PST reply actions

i hope

we win 40 games and then somehow are awarded good fortune and are awarded a top 5 pick.

Here we come 8th seed.

by junit3123 @ Blazer's Edge on Mar 5, 2007 10:46 PM PST reply actions

I don't accept tanking , but it's okay to root for

other udnerdogs now and then isn't it? Especially when the team that finsished w/ the 5th worst record/5th POSTION in the lottery last year(Toronto) ended up w/ pick # 1?

BOS and PHI both have 4gm win streks going and while Memphis/Boston have a firm hold on the 1 and 2 POSITIONS respectively, there are 4 teams CHA/ATL/MIL/PHI tied for 3rd POSITION. They have 38 losses to our 35 w/ 22 games to go. I don't know how the schedules compare for all us underdogs, but the draft order is far from being determined. So while I will continue to root for my young Blazers to improve, I will root for the other underdogs too. Who knows, maybe we pull a Toronto?

by JMblazerfan on Mar 5, 2007 11:15 PM PST reply actions

i like your take

rooting for other teams opposed to enjoying blazers losses. makes me feel alot less guilty. And I know we're not going to get a top 2 pick, I'm not holding ono that. But somewhere in bewteen 3-5 would be very sweet. We'd have a multitude of options at that spot. I really like Julian Wright, but I don't see him lasting till our projected #8 spot.

by ssa400 on Mar 5, 2007 11:48 PM PST up reply actions

Thanks. And even if we end up w/ worse than

the 8th sopt I am still optimistc. Why? Because for the first time in years I have confidence in management to make the right decision-trading up/down, buying a pick, whatever. Whitsitt is gone, Nash is gone, and finally Patterson too. I like what I've read about Pritchard, and I really like what Leiweke did w/ the Seahawks-not just the success on the field, but the committment to hire management/acquire personnel w/ same desire to make a positve impact off the field as well.

by JMblazerfan on Mar 6, 2007 10:57 AM PST up reply actions

Yes,

it's a sad state when our hopes have to lie with getting a high draft pick. I'd like to think we may have progressed beyond that point. Our focus now should be to develop the young guys we have been acquiring and a little less I think on baseing our hopes on still more young recruits. Sure, Durant or Oden would be great, but the odds are so slim ...

by TwoDeep on Mar 5, 2007 11:17 PM PST reply actions

One thing's for sure

If they're revealing the lottery order in reverse and it comes to our spot and we're not there, the house is going to go absolutely, freakin' CRAZY.

--Dave

by Dave on Mar 5, 2007 11:18 PM PST up reply actions

Although, due to the Durant/Oden situation . . .

. . . the dropoff from #2 to #3 is pretty steep.
So there'd still be some edge-of-seat tension until the #3 is revealed.

And considering the top two are set (providing they both come out),
the battle among the prospects is for #3--who's winning that one?
Seems like a clusterfumble right now . . .

"Kill the bear! KILL THE BEAR!!!" -- Statler & Waldorf

by QualityPie on Mar 6, 2007 2:49 PM PST up reply actions

But what if we could develop our young guys

and get Durant too??? How sweet would that be???

by JMblazerfan on Mar 5, 2007 11:37 PM PST up reply actions

I am a Blazer fan ...

I want the team to play hard and smart and win every game it possibly can. But I also think it's a bit naive to not want a player like Oden or Durant. I ABSOLUTELY want one of those guys to come and play for us for the next 10-12 years. We could be good when our current roster has more time to develop--but we could be GREAT with one of those guys in the mix. I don't think it's sacrilege to wish it so.

Our record will be whatever it will be when the season's over. We have a pretty tough schedule here on out, with more games away than at home. If we can play some teams tough and not quit, but maybe still lose, I'm happy. We've already shown the progress we needed to this year, and a few extra wins is not going to make me feel any better about the team--I already feel great about them. Conversely, a few extra losses won't make me feel worse--we're not very good comparatively, whether we're the 5th worse or the 9th worse. All that is to say, I'm definitely rooting for Minny, GS, Seattle, Philly, Charlotte, Milwaukee, and Atlanta to win a few more games than us from here on out.

by bfan on Mar 7, 2007 7:42 AM PST reply actions