We are on track

by drawingjeremy on Dec 5, 2007 1:33 PM PST Comment 4 comments

I've read so much negative talk lately and rarely have the time or energy to lay out how I've been perceiving things this so far this season with regards to expectations. I have been a season ticket holder for years, still am, and I've got to say though I'd love to see more I am happy with the progress I am seeing. I just replied to a post in a diary with a very similar text, but realized it was so long that it may be worth a diary of it's own. So, here's a list of very basic questions about the team play this year and my takes on what we are seeing in the grand scheme of things;

Would I like to see a couple of adjustments with regards to player rotation? Yes.

Would the adjustments I wish to see made to player rotation result in an immediate increase in wins? Almost definitely not... the adjustments I'd consider making would be in service of (hopefully) improving underplayed players and although we could luck into another couple of wins this season it is more likely that we'd lose more games this year with the minor adjustments I'd make than win more, though I think the difference in W/L record would be minor.

Despite that preference and the choice to bow to the expertise of the coaches on this decision (who do a much better job than I could) are we improving? Yes. On the whole definitely, the biggest things I can point to are the obvious improvements of Lamarcus (in the face of seeing double teams to boot) and the very fact that we now expect Outlaw and Webster as actual contributors on a nightly basis. Did we have those expectations last year... not future expectations, but daily expectations, I'd say the answer would be a resounding no.

Will we end up within or very close to the 30-35 win category that I thought we would be in prior to the season beginning? Yes.

Are we currently on track to win that number of games or is something going to change? We are almost on track (on track to win 27). In truth I'd be thrilled if we could win 35 this season, low 30s is where I adjusted to when Oden went down. When considering the schedule thus far I'd say that we are definitely on track to win 30, likely slightly more which is just what I expected.

Are our players consistent night in and night out? No.

Can that be attributed to youth at all? Absolutely, we see times of poise and times of confusion. That is normal with a young inexperienced team, especially when it has changed so drastically over the last couple of seasons. Just playing together for longer periods of time will net more wins via increased knowledge of your teammates abilities and tendencies coupled with everyone more clearly understanding their expectations. Add in Nate settling into roles as he learns what is and is not working and the natural increase in talent and it's hard not to say that youth plays a factor.

And what of the suggestion that younger players don't repeat mistakes, and that's an excuse? I understand the point, we don't want to be making excuses, we expect the same mistakes to not be continually repeated, but they will be from time to time, this is why it takes years to become a veteran role player.

Does that mean we are giving our guys free passes? No, Nate definitely doesn't give our guys free passes, if anything he's at the opposite end of that spectrum. As for fans, I really don't think people are, but I think it may seem that way because there has been a certain amount of alarmist behavior that warrants some sort of defense because it's not appropriately placed. If fatty weren't on his BE hiatus right now he'd certainly be calling a lot of people GOOFs in a lot of posts. This is not to say that these people are truly Greg Oden Only Fans, but the expectations that most of us had even post getting the #1 draft pick seem to not be grounded with the behavior I would point to as being alarmist.

Does that mean that we expect to see improvement? Yes.

Overtime what improvements are most important to see? Consistency, this is lacking right now, and it makes sense that it is. Raw talent is visible almost right out of the gate, veteran talent establishes consistency. Some of this is nerves (mental). Some of it is increased experience and presumably basketball IQ. Some of it relates more to the refs extending the benefit of doubt that veterans regularly see (and learning how to flop better. It all adds up to more consistent results when looking at a game on a quarter by quarter basis.

Here's a poll for you all, please discuss, poke holes in my statements, prop me up as a voice of reason in negative-land, but whatever you do have fun! BTW I do wish I could preview the poll... I guess that's not an option though, hopefully it's clear.

Poll

I can only assume my statement of consistency being the most important thing to see improvements on will be shared by all, so let's look at what we want to see become more consistent this season with via poll. What particular aspect of consistency do you

Improvement of Roy and Aldridge, they still have a long ways to go.

3 votes

Roy and Aldridge are right on track, but I'm concerned about Webster and Outlaw, sometimes it seems like they getting it, but then... well things change, if we can figure out if they have long-term roles this year will be a success.

14 votes

We are perpetually in a mediocre talent pool at the point especially defensively, but offensively we aren't running things all that well either. We need to figure this out immediately, and do so with the intent to package other players be they on the ros

2 votes

The real issues are coaching related. Nate and staff need to figure out what they are doing, they seem to either have no direction, or they aren't exerting their will on the players effectively. If that consistency is established things will fall in pla

1 votes

We need to establish what will happen when Oden joins the team, in particular with the PF and C back-up spots where we are currently very thin. Oden will have plenty of foul trouble next year, Joel often does as well. Can Frye become a contributor, and

2 votes

We still have a small foward issue, it won't be Martell or Travis, and though Jones just had a good game it was a fluke, we need to figure out this postion pronto to compete in the future. I'd like to see us make a move to get this spot to be something w

0 votes

I sometimes go to games and I just want to see our fans consistently cheering the team on... I'm upset at the regular booing our own team in the Rose Garden, that's the most important thing to get consistent because when we do it will help their confidenc

2 votes

24 votes | Poll has closed

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Comments

Obviously the poll didn't work out well

It was my first poll. I just tried to edit / update to get the answers short enough to fit, but it didn't take.

The content is lost some on the C/PF consistency question (McRoberts and to a lesser extent Freeland come into play).

The small forward issue suggested packaging and trading for someone new or adding more / better draft picks.

The point guard consistency suggested packaging and trading as an option as well be it to remove some of our 5 points (including Koponen) or to get rid of everyone and bring in some new options.

I think you get the gist of the others, hopefully that clears things up if not in the cleanest way.

by drawingjeremy on Dec 5, 2007 1:50 PM PST reply actions 0 recs

Concerns and kudos, in no particular order:

Not to worried about Aldridge or Roy. Aldridge has been a stud all year. Roy's had a struggle lately, but he's shown enough ability to be consistent that I'm not concerned.
Not worried about guys like Prz, James Jones, or Blake in their eventual backup roles. Good mature veterans who won't screw up. Having any of these as starters hurts, as they automatically are among the weakest in the league at their position; having them off the bench would be great.
Encouraged about Webster and to a lesser extent, Jack. Web has been a consistent all-around player this year. Not a star by a longshot; and I'd gladly trade him and Jack for either DW or CP3. But progressing nicely. JJ1 may have found his niche as a sixth man. He did a good job last year at PG, but last year we had Ime around to cover the opposition's best perimeter player. Not having Ime has exposed Jack on defense...badly.
Concerned a bit about trout. He finished strong last season; this year has played about 2 decent games (but they were awesome games). I don't mind having a few hot/cold players on your bench, as long as the hot/cold ratio is reasonably good. (The trouble with Juan Dixon is that he was "cold" far too often).
Not terribly concerned about Frye, per se. He's not a crucial piece of the puzzle, and he's playing out of position. And he's sucked so far this year. But he's expendable if he doesn't work out.
Not concerned about guys like Josh or Taurean, other than getting them playing time. Likewise if and when Koponen and Freeland ever show up.
Mildly concerned as to whether Rudy will be able and willing to come to the NBA. I think he will, next year, but it's a risk.
Watching carefully the health of young #52. So much is riding on that knee--if he doesn't come back, then what?
Quite concerned about the starting point guard position--as in, "we don't have one". Sure, Blake is the guy who is on the floor when the opening tip occurs, but he's not an average-or-better starter. And neither at this point is Jack, Sergio, or Green. Roy, I don't know--he might be the answer, but then we have lots of other issues to deal with.
Quite concerned about perimeter D. Losing Udoka hurts us (though he isn't getting much burn with SA--Bowen's still doing his thing, after all). Webster has improved his D but he's no stopper; neither is Roy. Nobody on the team can adequately cover quick guards. Having a healthy Oden will help, but this is a major issue.
Moderately concerned about rebounding and toughness. We miss guys like Zach and Mags. Bad perimeter D means that Prz and LMA are often out of position. Frye is useless on the boards. Oden should help here. Webster is a bright spot from the 3 spot. We could use a Buck Williams, or a Brian Grant, off our bench--someone who will clean up the boards and bust someone's chops if necessary.
Not too concerned about coaching at this point; although Nate does appear to be short-term focused more than I would like.
Not too concerned about the team's character (ignoring Miles for the minute), other than perhaps we're too nice. Some targeted nastiness would be nice. (Maybe it's time for another poll...)
I would love to have some player--even if a selfish, no-D ballhog who sits on the bench--who can consistently do what guys like Wade, Kobe, and LeBron do--take it to the hole and throw it down, even against set and competent defense. Roy can sometimes do it, but he's not a throw-it-down type. Travis can do it on alternate Tuesdays--but tends to drop the ball on the way up. Darius used to be able to do it; not sure if he still can (and that's ignoring all the burnt bridges in his wake).
No complaints about management. KP is doing a fine job--and neither Oden's injury nor the Zach trade make me think otherwise. Larry Miller keeps out of the papers--which is good.
Hope that when 2009 rolls around, we'll be an attractive free agent destination. (An interesting question--who should we go after?)

by EngineerScotty on Dec 5, 2007 3:46 PM PST reply actions 0 recs

Great responses

I'm with you... excellent additions about Jack - I neglected that one. I think he's been a great off the bench combo guard and if he's OK with that would love to see him there long term. On that topic I absolutely agree... CP3 or DW instead of Jack & Webster were obvious choices to me at the time and now. (I favor DW though think CP3 has more "star" power... but boy would DW be great with our guys... talk about a Nate PG too.) I suppose it's possible that Webster becomes a good enough player that I reevaluate, but though I think he's going to be a legit NBA player I still wonder if he'll ever become a star player, or even a top 5 in conference SF (or SG). He definitely seems like he'd become a great back-up on a contending team though. Yeah, I'd love a selfish off the bench player who could fill that role too. I wished that Zach would have stepped into his rightful back-up position and played more Boozer style garbage man, but if he accepts that role anywhere it clearly wasn't going to be in Portland. I think we should be a very attractive free agent destination when 2009 roles around, but as you said so much rides on GOd's knee.

by drawingjeremy on Dec 5, 2007 4:10 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs

Very nice!

I think this is a great post that should serve to remind everyone where we are at. I think things are exactly where they need to be, but the 'alarmists' as you put it are really in an all or nothing now kind of mode. It is making this site difficult to read at times and is certainly upsetting in a season that is filled with so much promise, but still a ton of growth needs to happen. Honestly I think the only thing that we have is time. I think the point position will work itself out in time. The answer will come when we are ready to see it. There is no need to hit the panic button. I think Sergio will be a dream spark-plug off the bench and will be crucial in pushing us up to impossible to beat by building leads off of the bench, but really who knows. The forwards aren't a mess but aren't a complete picture either. Again, someone will step up. I am leaning more towards the answer there being on the team than at our point. Roy isn't the answer though. I think moving a budding superstar out of his natural position is just a bad idea. As far as Nate goes, him not playing people could be better for the long haul than just giving people the spots we would like them to be at. If Sergio had his time given to him then maybe he wouldn't be fighting and clawing for it, working on his D and eliminating mistakes. When he does earn more time then he will work harder not to give it up if he has always been on a short leash. Let's face it, the thing we really need to watch out for if he does fulfill his potential is him starting to get sloppy and wild at times. How do you fix that? Well, you give him the treatment he is getting now, but you have to ingrain it, not take away what he thinks is rightful his. Outlaw has won us 2 games in the clutch now, and I think it is time to give Nate credit where other people couldn't see the light. I don't want the coach who everyone knows what he is thinking until despite you knowing what he is doing you can't stop it. We aren't at that point yet, but when we are maybe everyone will agree with Nate a whole lot more. I think that we shouldn't lose focus of where we are at in this building process and keep that consistency when we get to where we want to be. Great post, I'll keep an eye out for your stuff.

by einman77 on Dec 7, 2007 1:42 AM PST reply actions 0 recs