Pick Six
by Dave on Dec 26, 2007 11:35 PM PST
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PrintIt is the God-given right of fans to be idealistic when it comes to the future of their own teams' players. We all do it, especially when things are going well like this. It's easy to bow down before the holy tenets guiding our fandom:
- All of our players will develop to their fullest potential.
- All of our players will remain Blazers.
- All of our players will remain happy.
So while things are going well and before this question appears to become easy (I say appears because things fluctuate so much it's never really easy) let's ask.
If you had to pick six, and only six, Blazers that you knew would remain with the team, take the lion's share of the minutes, and thus remain happy which six would those be?
I'm going to assume that Brandon Roy, Lamarcus Aldridge, and Greg Oden will be locks to make everyone's roster. If those three names don't start your list the burden of proof on you is going to be astronomically high. For most of us it boils down to which other three players you think will stick, help, flourish, and prosper.
Keep in mind that picking multiple people at the same positions lessens the likelihood of fulfilling the holy tenets. Even picking two players with similar strengths like James Jones and Martell Webster may cause problems. We're assuming everyone you keep is reaching their peak potential. (Why would you keep them otherwise?) If that's so, how are James and Martell going to co-exist while maximizing their scoring, shooting, and minutes? So, too, if your favorites are Blake, Jack, and Sergio. Even worse if you think Roy is a point guard or Taurean Green or Petteri Koponen will make an impact.
When you think about it there are some tough, maybe even harsh, decisions to be made here. The question is, based on what you know (or suspect) how would you make them?
The candidates are listed here. Keep in mind that this is the max-potential version of each. Their weaknesses will all be there, but for now we're concentrating on their strengths.
Steve Blake--A tough minded true point who may be the only guy on the team who can consistently set the offense. A good shooter also.
Channing Frye--A tall forward with good vertical speed who can hit from distance.
Jarrett Jack--A strong-bodied combo guard who can score major points in short minutes. Our most consistent driver.
James Jones--A sweet-shooting assassin who's smart enough to put himself in good position.
Darius Miles--The returning veteran with phenomenal athleticism and instant scoring potential to match anyone on the team.
Travis Outlaw--The Dynamite Kid who can score in droves, out-leap anyone, and is the master of the jaw-dropping play.
Joel Przybilla--A defensive center...a rebounding machine...a tough guy who is willing to do anything it takes to help the team win.
Sergio Rodriguez--The point with the most potential...a prescient passer with great speed and the ability to get his shot.
Martell Webster--A shooter with the potential to become an offensive dynamo. If he reaches his full potential he's the most likely outside of the Big Three to become a consistent 20ppg man.
And then there's the prospects...
Taurean Green--A defensive-minded hustler who can also run the team and hit clutch shots.
Josh McRoberts--A hard-nosed forward who can also pass and score.
Rudy Fernandez--A potential offensive missile with crafty drives and a shot.
Petteri Koponen--A tall, rangy point guard who is developing a shot and appears to play an all-around game.
Joel Freeland--A quick power forward with several offensive options.
So which three of those guys would you keep alongside the Big Three as big-minute Blazers and why?
--Dave (blazersub@yahoo.com)
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travis, jones, and rudy
Then, Travis would come in and give our second unit a spark
A question
Well I'm just going to use the later.
The three I would pick is Rodriguez, Webster and Fernendez.
Rodriguez is a gamble but I don't think Jack will ever develop into an elite PG, Rodriguez at least has the instincts, he just needs to work on the other stuff (defense, decision making). For the SF position it was a toss-up between Webster and Outlaw. With Oden and Aldridge working the inside I'd rather have a jumpshooter like Martell. Rudy I am not sold on like everyone else seems to be but he seems to have the best upside so I'll take him last.
Oden, Aldridge, Roy, Webster, Rodriguez, Fernandez. The core.
by jayseyfield on Dec 27, 2007 12:03 AM PST reply actions
travis, martell and rudy
I'd hate to lose James Jones' leadership, Rudy Fernandez is completely unproven, and this leaves out a consistent PG, but these are the guys I like.
tough one
Martell if we are assuming full potential.
Rudy's my 3rd guy. If what I've read about him is true, he could be special.
This is a team of good players
but let's not get carried away.
Steve Blake is not a good shooter unless you consider his career .406 average good. I don't. He's a fair shooter.
Same with James Jones. His career .403 is worse than Blake.
I also can't agree with Joel being a "rebounding machine" at 5.5 for his career. As a 7'1" starting center, he's a fairly weak rebounder who is currently ranked 37th in the league.
I know this site is all about getting hyped and worked up, and that's great. How about we keep some perspective as well?
by t jay on Dec 27, 2007 12:14 AM PST reply actions
Joel's rebounding
Joel's rebound rate is nearly 20%. For grabs one out of every five missed shots (at either end) while he's on the floor. That's pretty impressive.
by il serpente on Dec 27, 2007 12:29 AM PST up reply actions
(sigh)
Good thing so many attractive females are drawn naturally to bloggers. Otherwise I might start losing my hair.
More of it, that is.
--Dave
I share your frustration
It's like calling Mike Barrett too negative when he's standing next to Canzano.
by jayseyfield on Dec 27, 2007 2:20 AM PST up reply actions
Questions like this are regularly posed
Please tell us which six you would keep. We understand that you don't want to over hype the team... if you don't want six perhaps you could tell us who you'd keep only for trade value?
by drawingjeremy on Dec 27, 2007 12:49 AM PST up reply actions
Man that's rude
by jayseyfield on Dec 27, 2007 2:15 AM PST up reply actions
S'ok
--Dave
Oh
--Dave
Kidding on the Square
by drawingjeremy on Dec 27, 2007 5:00 PM PST up reply actions
Thanks Dave
I'm a guy who absolutely loves the NBA and follows the Blazers. I also love statistics and what they may or may not say. I like to think of myself as being fairly able to view the team neutrally and not as a cheerleader. I believe websites like this are devoted to supporting or "boosting" the team, and I think that's great. I believe BlazersEdge serves it's purpose, and I enjoy and appreciate being a member.
What this site is generally not about is factual critical analysis of the team. That's why I jump in from time to time with challenging comments, which are NEVER intended to be rude or disrespectful to anyone in any way.
T Jay
by t jay on Jan 3, 2008 12:30 AM PST up reply actions
My nine man roster...
2 Rudy
3 Webster
4 LMA
5 Oden
1 Sergio
2 Joel
3 Travis
4 Frye
It was really hard to put Frye on there instead of Jones but I did it only because it will balance the roster better.
no, I am just a little slow...
This might seem crazy, but my first pick would probably be Rudy. I just have this feeling he will be the perfect compliment to Roy if he ever officially makes the move to point guard. I think Rudy will be able to hang with point guards defensively and this will also mitigate his need to gain muscle. If they decide to have someone besides Roy run the offense(which seems unlikely to me at this point), I like Sergio for that role and would probably just swap sergio for rudy on this list.
Next I think it is Martell. I think he has the potential to be a good all around player and a lights out shooter from 3, we will definetely need that to stretch the D.
Last but not least is Outlaw, his potential is probably too high to come of the bench, but that is how I would want him used. I think he would suck it up as he would still get 30+ minutes a night.
Interesting that everyone has included Rudy so far
Rudy, Webster, Rodriguez
That list is under the assumption that Martell takes Jones' spot as the deadly 3-point shooter.
We need a PG because, while Roy sets up plays well, it just doesn't seem like being the full time ball handler would fit him and Sergio has the most potential.
Last is Rudy. Basically after filling the two positions holes above I took the best player on the board and since I don't know what his weaknesses are, "fulfills his potential" doesn't really have a cap... btw Rudy > MJ.
Full potential?
Travis: Hyper-athletic, explosive, and long as the day. Full potential means those fundamentals are figured out, which is good news.
Martell: A dead-eye three-point shooter with a killer instinct.
Sounds good to me.
This is the one!
Everyone needs a shooter, and Martell is the youngest, so you take him over Jones.
And a full potential Sergio would just be too good and WAY to fun to pass on.
by Noisy Kricket on Dec 27, 2007 7:43 AM PST up reply actions
Seven would have been easier.
Aldridge
Roy
Sergio
Travis
Martell
If Sergio reaches full potential along with the other five this team would be deadly. Sergio is the biggest risk but I think he'll make it. I see Roy Travis and Martell all as players who will be able to hit 3s and take it to the rim at maximum potential, add the twin towers and that would be something to see if they all reached maximum potential that is. * would have loved to keep Rudy around to see if he can make it as well...
Will have to
- Brandon Roy
- Greg Oden
- LaMarcus Aldridge
- Martell Webster
- Travis Outlaw
- Rudy Fernandez
FA '09 Veteran
'08 1st rounder (unless it is traded)
Sergio Rodgriguez & Green_OR_Kopponen*
McRoberts (more likely) or Freeland (less likely)
*only if FA '09 is NOT a Point Guard
The rest seem really unlikely given their potential and market value by year's end (James Jones, Channing Frye, Jarrett Jack, Steve Blake, Joel Pryzbilla, etc...). I'll be sad to see any of them go.
Need a PG
LMA
Roy
Martell -- Chosen over James Jones because of he's younger, so we get to enjoy his full potential longer.
Travis -- If he fulfills his full potential, he's insane scary. He can back up both SF and PF, so there's plenty of minutes available for him. I don't think he cares about starting if he is getting 30 minutes a game off the bench.
Who's #6? If we're assuming full potential, and you need a PG, I've got to go with either Sergio or Koponen. Koponen's taller, and will most likely be a better defender. If he reaches his full potential, I'll take PK.
Why not Rudy? His potential may indeed be very, very high. But Roy is not a true PG, I don't want to see Roy wearing himself down bringing the ball up the court against full court pressure. So Roy needs much of his time to be at the 2, and Rudy is a 2. I don't Roy and Rudy playing long minutes together.
If I only get to choose six, I want five starters and one backup who can backup two different positions, so we can have him on the court a lot.
EASY
He will be the best back-up center in the NBA and we won't have a defensive dropoff when Oden goes out (and he'll go out a lot due to foul trouble early on).
Seconded
Of course, after Dave's comments above about chicks digging the blogger, I'm picturing him in a velvet smoking jacket, offering an impressionable sweet young thing a glass of rose with the pick-up line, "How'd you like to come back to my place and look at some of my postings?"
Please make it stop...I beg you, please...
Interesting
I think a core group of Roy, Oden, LaMarcus, Sergio, Martell, and Fernandez would give Portland the best chance to win playing up-tempo. Moreover, these players would seem to complement each other's games nicely and could compete on both sides of the ball; their versatility would be a major asset, especially in the postseason. This is my ideal team.
If, however, we remain in a mixed offense, only Martell would be a clear choice (his outside shooting being a necessary complement to Oden's post-ups and Roy's drives). Travis, too, would be needed since he's the only guy on the team who can get his shot off anywhere regardless of defensive pressure. Joel would be the final piece. His superb ability to protect the paint and rebound at both ends would be crucial in this system, and I doubt he'd demand more minutes if the team were winning.
To recap: Martell, Sergio, Fernandez in an up-tempo style (ideal); Martell, Travis, Joel in a slower game.
Webster, Rodriguez, Przybilla
Rodriguez is more fun to watch than the other point guards, so if he indeed did fulfill his potential there is no way you leave him off this list. Webster is of course a dynamite player and a good guy. Przybilla is the dominate inside presence the Blazers need. Easy money.
easy
Rudy - Also a potential pick. We need that 6th man role filled, and it would be either Rudy or Travis. But to me Rudy has the bigger potential.
Webster - once again potential. He is just breaking the surface of his potential this season. He could be great in one or two more.
I want to keep Joel for his defense, (his potential is maxed out right now imo) and I believe we will be able to keep him.
I also want to keep James Jones, and believe we will be able to, as again I think his growth as a player is pretty much maxed out. A deadly 3 point gunner off the bench is a must have imo.
Travis I would love to keep, but if Rudy comes over and does fill his full potential, than travis becomes trade bait. (he is my fav blazer so that is hard for me to even say)
Steve, Jack, Frye, Reaf, McRob, Green, PK, freeland, etc... are all just pieces that can be replaced. Of course if one or more of them develope and fullfill their potential, then KP will have some very hard decisions to make based on talent, and not just based on liking a guy.
Wow
But I'm going to choose differently from most above me. You all can pick the starters, I'm going to look at the bench. Therefore I'm going to keep Przy and Blake. I think they will be great backups for Oden and whomever the pg (but I'm not going to pick that pg). They both have shown they want to be Blazers and I wouldn't expect either of them to want to go elsewhere, particularly when we're consistently in the playoffs.
And for my third - or sixth - I was going to live dangerously and choose Rudy, just because. But if we stick to currently signed players I think I'll take Jones because he'd fit well on my bench with Blake & Przy.
In the assessment of greatest potential
Then it's Rudy or Travis and I s'pose I'd go with Travis; he's a freak. And I've seen more of him.
But I'll be a bit of a rule breaker here and add that I prefer chemistry and lower potential grinders who bring all they've got over sky's-the-limit sources of frustration to compliment our main three (all still big on potential too). So give me the potential of Brandon, LaMarcus and Greg with lunchbucket type guys like Steve, Joel and yes, maybe even Jarrett.
I like warriors who dig deep and pull out wins the don't seem capable of over flashy guys who just don't seem to get it.
Having said that, this year is about patience, and every single one of boys is showing signs of 'getting it.' Which makes the discussion of max potential as fun as the silliness of talking about double digit winning streaks.
I mean, everybody knows we're just not good enough yet to be talking such silliness.
by ojala on Dec 27, 2007 7:24 AM PST reply actions
Finally a post on chemistry
The key here is that only 3 or maybe 4 of these guys will be starters here. So the second three need to be guys who can contribute off the bench and provide the leadership and stability to maintain the culture.
So after the big 3 my next pick is Jack. He is the guy, even more than Roy, who has demanded more from this team. He is our best glue guy. Fulfilling his potential is being a quicker Chauncey Billups. With Roy initiating much of the offense Jack can start or be 7th man.
My second pick is Martell. His potential is enormous. He will become (fulfilling that potential) not only an assassin but a lock-down defender ala Bowen. This is critical to have a perimeter defender. Martell is not selfish enough to demand the rock as first two options. He will get his points here.
My third pick is Travis. At his peak he is unstoppable and there are not many of those. Travis is not all about monogrammed luxury cars and fame. Travis seems to want to be really good and he along with Jack and Martell can get 25 minutes a night in either a starter or bench guy and still score 20 points a game.
Not picked but maybe staying:
So who is my 2nd guard? That depends on the future. I am willing to take my chances that we will develop or sign a serious outside threat to pair with Roy. Maybe Rudy will be that guy. Maybe Dwyane Wade. Who wouldn't want to play with these three (except the selfish players)?
Who is backup center? Joel is near his potential now and likes Portland so I see no reason why he will not stick around but lower 1st round picks (where we should be every year) can get a backup center nearly every year.
This is not a hard analysis because after the big three we will more likely rotate a succession of players (including free agents) to support. We really cannot afford to pay top dollar to more than the three (ok Mr Allen can afford 4). However the big three are not primarily shooters and that means it is essential to surround them with good shooters.
this is too hard
Alex makes a good case in the first post, however, for Jones, Outlaw, and Rudy. I'm reluctant to go with Rudy, though, because he's never played an NBA game.
I like Jones because he's our strongest 3 pt threat. Pryz because he's a warrior and grabs a ton of boards. Outlaw because he's got a deadly jumper, can slash to the rim, and is automatic at the free throw line.
Thought it would be fun to tally these
Webster 12
Travis 10
Sergio & Rudy tied with 9.
Not a single vote for Jack, but I expect that will change as more people check in.
I'll update around noon.
Pick Six
Rudy at the 2 (back court tandem with Roy)
Outlaw is the 6th man (best versatility)
Jones at the 3 (Webster's upside is higher, but I'll take the heady, team player who is more coachable)
by HoopsFanAZ on Dec 27, 2007 8:15 AM PST reply actions
Webster, Trout, and Joel
I'm with you
As for the cigarette smoking Euros, I've only seen YouTube highlights of one and a Jekyll & Hyde type performance of the other one. I have not seen enough of them to fall for them. The three mpressive picked have shown they can perform somewhat consistently at a high level and I think the point of this blog was "what if they maintain a high level of consistency?" If the Blazers could get these three running on all cylinders with the big 3, the Blazers would be a juggernaut.
Blake will retire in a Blazer uniform
On to my other 3. We need another quality big to back up GO and Pryz is a legitimate starter on a number of teams. Outlaw is my #2. Come the 4th quarter and Travis has been lights out this year. He just needs to work on his handles and get a little more consistency in his jumper but when it all comes together its pure beauty. Lastly, I am going to go with Webster. He is young, his game is still developing and he hasn't come close to his potential yet.
Great post
He's here for the long-term unless he wants out, for whatever reason. I could say the same for Jack, though I think Jack is more likely to grow discontent with the status quo.
by broggerboy19 on Dec 27, 2007 8:30 PM PST up reply actions
Martell, Pryzbilla, Sergio
This is fun -- and hard!
- Oden
- Roy
- Aldridge
- Rudy - I'm drinking the Kool-Aid
- Outlaw - Talent, energy, short memory = clutch
- Webster - Going to be a handful
a. Tough to leave Sergio out. I think he would have success with the Blazers, but it would mean maintaining 2 contrasting styles of play, and I don't know if that's a championship recipe.
b. Tough to leave Jones out. I'm going Martell over Jones for health and offensive versatility. Martell is a physical specimen and has shown no signs of bodily weakness. And, he can finish at the rim. I love all the different things Jones does and would love to keep him as a 15 - 20 minute guy.
c. Haven't seen enough Koponen for him to make the cut.
d. Blake has basically turned into a 2 guard at crunch time, and he's not much of a 2. Love the guy though.
e. Please let Joel stick around as a 10-15 minute guy! But not a top 6.
f. I'm not pained about anyone else, though I enjoy having them on our team.
by esacxela on Dec 27, 2007 9:52 AM PST reply actions
Travis, Joel & Jarrett
Travis is having his best year and should improve every year for at least 4 more seasons.
Pryz will be one of the best back up centers in the league and another important chemistry guy.
I'm rooting for Martell as much as anybody, but he could easily & equally be replaced by a player we got for no considerations = James Jones.
Steve Blake is a nice player & is playing well, but is replaceable.
I will be glad to eat the following words someday: Rudy Fernandez is completely overrated. He is too thin to be the next Ginobli. He won't be able to finish at the rim in the NBA like he has in the Euro league. I'm not impressed with his shooting mechanics. Also he needs two hands to finish most of his dunks. He isn't going to get the open court opportunities that we have all enjoyed watching on youtube. I know many of you will disagree, but what evidence do you have other than watching a 3 minute highlight video?
Steve Blake, Jarrett jack, James Jones
During the intense pressure of the Western Conference Finals, I'd like to see Blake with the ball. Meanwhile, if Jones hits full potential, his 3-pointer in the corner will be a show stopper. And Jack will be our assist master (with defense!)
Final point: I know that we are assuming we keep our key three, and I may not gain any fans with the suggestion, but I believe we may consider trading Aldridge (and pieces) for an amazing veteran. Don't think KP didn't notice how we played without him during those five games (remember how we played without Randolph at the end of last year... traded!)
How about Aldridge for a PG?
Sadly, I am beginning to suspect that Aldridge will never develop much of a low post game. He'll never be a low post banger. If that is true, then how much better is he than Frye? Nice jump shot, occasional hook, weak D against most PFs.
But these are just musings. I really think the Blazers may be wise just to stand pat and see what happens when Rudy and Oden are here.
I submit the last 23 games
Seriously? Weak D against most PF's? LMA is not a great defender, but he isn't weak and he will get better when strenth compliments his length/quickness.
Channing has outplayed Lamarcus no more than 2 times this entire year. Channing routinely is slow to a rebound or loose ball or help defense. LMA is not a great low block player, but I can count on one hand the times that Channing has got the ball down low and finished around/over the defense.
I'm glad you want to stand pat because LMA is our future power forward and a perfect compliment to Oden/Roy.
Thank you
If we remember correctly, Nate MacMillan was asked if LMA was expendable to this team and he replied with a very straightforward and firm response: LMA is our foundation for the future.
I'm sure he meant that LMA was PART of the foundation, but there you have it.
He's not going anywhere. Not only will he compete heavily for MIP this year, but he is the perfect complement to Oden.
We have the potential for one of the most prolific 4-5 tandems in NBA history. How many teams today can say that?
No way are we gonna pass that chance up by trading LMA. I like Frye but let's not get carried away here. LMA will be one of the top ten forwards in the NBA in a few years. Frye will be lucky to be a consistent starter.
PS., I also offer Dirk Nowitzki's two subpar performances against us as proof that LMA is a very talented & effective defender, even against All-Star PF's. And, yes, LMA had a LOT to do with Dirk's off nights. His length & speed can be very troublesome to opposing scorers that rely on those same attributes to get to the rim. And as Dave has pointed out, NOBODY gets by LMA on the perimeter, even opposing PG's. He's that quick & long.
by broggerboy19 on Dec 27, 2007 3:52 PM PST up reply actions
Potential is the word
Not so hard
Travis is obvious based on his incredible athletic potential and the glimspes of brilliance he's shown so far.
Likewise Martell, not only for his shooting but also the kid's got some hops, speed, and intelligence.
That leaves just one contested slot.
I feel Pryz has already achieved much of his potntial and we'd already have Oden and LMA.
Rudy would be okay but would have a lot of redundant skills held by Roy, Webster, and Outlaw.
I don't have a feel for P.K.'s potential but wouldn't scoff at that choice.
The winner for the last slot then is Sergioooooooo. Every team could use uncanny passing and ballhandling skills. Assuming he learns when to do what and how to shoot a basketball I think that would be the most effective piece.
by jon @ Blazer's Edge on Dec 27, 2007 10:17 AM PST reply actions
Agree: Trout, Martell, and Serg
The above is probably also true for Blake, who will probably eventually end up backing up Sergio in a year and a half or so. His talent level probably isn't quite high enough to be a starting PG on a championship caliber team (unless he develops a consistent high percentage three point threat shot). Currently, he is the must start point guard for this team in it's current developing stage.
Rudy has potential, but who knows at this point. I doubt Koponen will ever pan out for this team.
I agree
I also agree on what you wrote on Blake and the rest.
In "reality" the one I feel is the longer shot on this team to fulfill his potential enough to make everybody happy is Sergio. If I had to bet serious money on which six would be on the team four years from now I'd have:
Roy
LMA
Oden
Pryz (and then it gets fuzzy with maybe...)
Blake
Rudy
by jon @ Blazer's Edge on Dec 28, 2007 8:53 AM PST up reply actions
D'OH!
I write that not because I wouldn't like to see Blake on the team but because he's been a journeyman, traded before, and other teams are always looking for pg's so he'd be more likely to be thrown packaged into a deal.
by jon @ Blazer's Edge on Dec 28, 2007 8:57 AM PST up reply actions
The other three
They have all shown flashes and have the most potential. I do love role players such as James Jones and Joel as well. Winning teams definitely need those typse of guys. As far as Rudy, it's hard to say as I've never seen him play. All I have seen are euro highlight reals, and everybody looks good in there own highlight real. I'll wait unitl summer league before I'll have chance to judge him.
I like 'em smart
I see Jones as the next Reggie Miller. A hot shooting veteran. Knows where to be and when to shoot.
Blake: Plays well with others. He won't blow you away, but he'll elevate those around him better than anyone else, save Brandon.
Rudy: Heck, he may be the next MJ. I'll settle for the next Manu. Seems like a smart kid with a strong desire to succeed in the NBA.
With Oden, LMA, and Roy being the main guys, they need solid role players to back them up (Blake and Jones). Rudy comes off the bench and Roy shifts to the Point. You get the inside/mid-range/outside shooting and a couple guys that can slash. Scary.
by Steve The Hedge on Dec 27, 2007 10:31 AM PST reply actions
Of course the big 3,
- Outlaw (can anyone argue against the fact that a full potential outlaw would be a completely dominating player?)(easy)
- Sergio (again a full potential Sergio would be Nash, but with better perimeter shooting)(easy)
- Martell (only at full potential, without that porbably Jones... or Joel...) (really hard)
Sergio and Travis...
Sergio is the only one of these guys who has the potential to be elite, so I'll keep that.
After that, Martell? Rudy?
I hope the Blazers can find themselves a Shane Battier type to take over the 3. As good as Martell may get, the team will need someone who contributes without taking shots. It's really too bad that Ime had to get paid.
by little joey @ Blazer's Edge on Dec 27, 2007 11:29 AM PST reply actions
HIghest upsides?
The ones I actually care most about keeping?
Sergio, Thrilla, Jones, with Blake as the toughest omission.
by howlingfantods on Dec 27, 2007 11:40 AM PST reply actions
oh, missed the "why" part.
Upside list --
Sergio goes without saying. Fantastic handle and vision, if he can develop better decisionmaking and work on extending his range, he could be a top 5 point guard in a few seasons. Folks who are getting impatient with him are forgetting that he's just turned 21, didn't have any US college experience, and is adjusting to culture/language/game. Give him a few years before giving up on him.
Martell could be a 20 ppg scorer and a very good all around player. He's smart, athletic, and has that sweet stroke. His release is a little slow and he needs a lot of work on his ballhandling in order to become something other than a one-dimensional spotup shooter, but there's no reason why he can't develop these skills.
Frye. You don't see a beautiful stroke like that on a 6/11 guy often. He needs to decide what parts of his game to develop, but he's definitely got huge potential. Needs to learn to beast up and play like a big at least on defense/rebounding end. He's started making strides but he clearly needs work on some fundamentals. Also needs to decide to either be a pure jumpshooter and extend his range out to the 3, or to be more of a traditional big and work on scoring around the bucket.
Want to keep list --
Sergio has the highest upside other than our top 3 and the greatest chance of reaching it -- what he's missing is just some seasoning and a couple of summers of jumpshooting practice.
Joel, Jones, and Blake are almost identical players to me, in that they're all three capable of starting but happy to come off the bench. They're all pretty much in their primes, so they don't expect to get any better but they've learned to craft a career for themselves playing within their limitations.
Joel's a shotblocker and rebounder and doesn't care at all about scoring, but he's still working to get better (his improvement at the line this year has been astounding--I feel like we as fans should be making a bigger deal about it). I almost always prefer how we're looking when he's on the court then when he's off the court.
Jones will never be much more than a reliable three point threat and a better than average wing defender, but the combo of those things is valuable enough so that he's always going to be worth giving serious minutes to.
Blake is really winning me over. He doesn't add much value but he doesn't subtract anything. He's a worse than average defender, but he's rarely exposed with the team defense we use. He has a high a/to, although his assists are usually of the swing-the-ball-to-an-open-shooter variety. The epitome of the cautious, play within himself player.
by howlingfantods on Dec 27, 2007 12:11 PM PST up reply actions
Why not 7 picks
I think I would go joel, even though sergio is my favorite current pg.
webster
outlaw
joel
by martinti on Dec 27, 2007 11:51 AM PST reply actions
'Potential' is Quite Obviously
I've seen several people choose Sergio because he's 'potentially' the next Nash or Kidd.
I think that's stepping into aanother dimension. By that 'reasoning', McRoberts could be the next Odom, and Channing could be the next Macadoo. They could all potentially turn into players they are obviously not. I guess potential is in the eye of the beholder.
I'll add Pryzbilla, Outlaw, Webster, & Blake (I know it was only supposed to be 3, but if Sergio is potentially Nash, then 3 is potentially 4)
6 is Simply Not Enough
In fact, there are only 6 players on the current roster who probably WON'T be with us long-term. (At least 5 years.)
1. Raef
2. Darius
3. McRoberts
4. Green
5. Blake
6. Jack
Jury is still out somewhat on Jack and Green, with the possibility that Sergio could be the odd-man out instead of one of those two.
Everyone else on the roster at this point is solid, and should be with the team for 5+ years.
Why these 6?
Raef and Darius are no-brainers to be gone. Contracts alone demand this if we're going to play for a free agent in '09.
McRoberts is overmatched for minutes behind Aldridge, Frye and Outlaw. He's not going to outperform those guys. Ever.
Green is, well, green. Also a low draft pick. I think some team will probably give him a chance, and he may have a long career as a backup PG someplace, but probably not here.
Blake is not, and never was, a long-term solution at point guard, and will find it difficult to find a place even at backup if either Sergio or Green develop even a fraction of their potential. He'll be lucky to find a backup spot on some other team in 3 years.
Jack is getting more minutes at 2 right now, but he's undersized there, and Rudy is going to be pushing him hard starting next year.
Where does all of this leave Freeland and Koponen?
Freeland will probably never come over. Koponen might have an outside chance at coming to training camp, but we're so overloaded with "promise" at point guard, it's hard to see how he's ever going to crack the rotation.
Okay fine.
- Travis
- Martell
- Rudy
My six:
- James Jones (sharpshooters are hard to come by)
- Martell Webster
- Trout
2:36 Totals
Outlaw: 23
Webster: 22
Rodriguez: 14
Fernandez: 12 (afternoon support much weaker)
Przybilla: 11 (third most votes in this round)
Should have added
and someone after moldorf (sorry, no longer on my screen) analyzed everyone, but I wasn't sure if he/she actually picked 3.
With the assumption that the
Webster: If he realizes his full potential, then this is a no brainer. A deadly shooter is at a premium in this league, there simply arne't that many. With the way the team is built, you need that 3 point threat. It'll space the floor and when teams double LMA and Oden, his ability to knock down the J will be invaluable. He is the ideal SF for this team.
Outlaw: I'm not sure what he's capable of. I absolutely love him though. Every team needs a bench option, and this guy couuld be one of the best. He's not as much of a no brainer, but his ability to play the backup 4 and 3, he'll be able to find 30 mins a game and be able to produce. His athleticism will be uber useful. And apparently, he's kind of clutch now?
Rudy: As of right now, i don't drink any of the kool-aid. Becase in reality, this kid could simply be a bust. But since we're assuming they realize their potential. Then, I guess i'll go with him. A shifty scorer, playmaker and shooter paired with Roy in the starting lineup would be difficulut to game plan against.
Sergio was tough to leave out in this dicussion. Since if he realizes his potential, then I guess he would be an amazing point. But his game does not mesh well at all with Brandon Roy, who is our star. He dominates the ball, and we need the ball in the hands of roy as much as possible. I don't see why anyone here would pick Pryz to be one of our top 6 with a healthy Oden in the mix. If oden becomes a David Robinsonesque player, what role does Przy have on this team? Nothing.
Well put
If foul trouble is our reason for keeping Joel, than we seriously need to re-evaluate our stance.
We should keep him while LMA & GO are developing, yes.
But they won't be green, foul-prone, big men all their careers. Eventually they'll grow up and learn to play the 40 mins/game we need from them on a nightly basis.
Joel would make a great scrub but he's simply too good and too valuable to be a 10-15 min back-up.
And he's WAY too expensive. I say we let him go to flourish somewhere else and make a bazillion dollars.
If he wants to take a paycut to play for a title then great! But I'm not holding my breath.
Sergio, Rudy, Martell, Travis...all of these guys seem like more logical choices to crack the top 6 as they will command top dollar and bring somewhat unique skill sets to our roster.
And, more importantly, they will be called upon to play at least 30 mins/game. The same can't be said for Joel in a few years time.
by broggerboy19 on Dec 27, 2007 4:03 PM PST up reply actions
Regarding Joel
Look how rapidly Shaq is breaking down. It is like Shaq's warranty expired last year, and all the components are breaking down at the same time. It will not be long before the cost of repair exceeds the value of buying a new one. Not to mention we are talking about a product where only one is created every 10 years or so.
I agree
And I don't think Shaq has broken down "rapidly".
He's been in the league forever! If Oden's career is similar to Shaq's in terms of endurance, then we'll have more rings than we can count on one hand, maybe even two...
by broggerboy19 on Dec 27, 2007 8:37 PM PST up reply actions
Joel is making
I hope you're right
But I thought Joel was making upwards of $8-10M in at least one year of his current contract?
Are you sure abt your numbers?
by broggerboy19 on Dec 28, 2007 11:38 AM PST up reply actions
They are correct
And the ESPN Trade Machine: http://games.espn.go.com/nba/features/trademachine
by tominhawaii on Dec 28, 2007 12:07 PM PST up reply actions
Initially I would have said ...
So, I'll go with Outlaw, Rudy, and Jones.
I am convinced that teams do NOT need a killer point guard to win championships. Look at the Bulls and the Rockets and the Celtics. They all won with marginal talent at PG--someone who could defend, keep their cool, and hit big shots. Players like this abound in the NBA, so I imagine we can find one when we need to.
I kept Jones because he just sees the game so darn well, and I think a player like that is a must-have. He's a guy like Mario Elie, Sean Elliot, Robert Horry, etc. He's a supporting player, but still has a nose for the big moment. And he doesn't seem to need to warm up. He can step up whenever he called upon to hit a big shot or secure a big rebound. And with Roy, Oden, and Aldridge, we don't really need another leading actor, we need someone who knows how to help the others shine with the right play at the right time: making the right pass, setting up in the right spot, hitting the open shot to keep the defense honest. It's no coincidence we started this win steak when Jones got healthy. Something tells me Martell could go down and we'd keep winning. Not so sure that's the case with Jones. Oden, Roy, and Aldridge are the mixes, but Jones is the straw that stirs the drink.
I kept Rudy because he seems to have something that noone else on this team has: Unabashed fearlessness coupled with a broken safety (like on a gun). I'd say a lot of the players on our team are fearless (excluding Martell), but they still play with a measure of carefulness. That doesn't seem to be the case with Rudy. He plays like his balls are on fire (excuse the expression), and I love it. I don't think we have a player of that nature on the team right now, and I would think he could really fit in. And Rudy is also the main reason I didn't keep Martell, because if Rudy can really turn into this type of player, I think Martell becomes superfluous.
Finally, we simply have to keep Outlaw. I could talk about his boyish charm and cheeky smile, his humility, his likability, etc ... But the main thing for me is that he is playing OUT OF HIS MIND lately (I'd use bigger caps if I could), and yet I still have this sense that he is STILL NOT EVEN CLOSE to reaching his potential. Does anyone else feel this way? How can he be this good, and yet we still don't know how good he can be? I mean, he can simply do things on the court that NOBODY else can do (with that bald head of his, he has actually looked like MJ on a few of those jumpers). But the best part about him is that he seems to be able to operate outside of the scheme of the offense, unlike Martell, who seems to need to get the ball in certain spots to be effective. It doesn't seem to matter when or where Travis gets the ball--he can kill you from anywhere on the floor. He's like that game at Chucky Cheese's where the little groundhogs pop up and you have to bonk them on the head. You know where Martell's going to pop, so you can be there waiting for him, but with Outlaw you just never know. And even if you're waiting for him, he can still just leap over the bopper anyway. Here's my theory on Travis's development: He used to not try to kill his opponent every time he got the ball, but would occasionally do so on accident, which gave us all hope. He got a taste for that and liked it, so now he's trying to kill his opponent every time he gets the ball, but he's still succeeding only part of the time. In 2-3 years when he is actually succeeding in killing his opponent every time he gets the ball, I think he'll be an absolutely SCARY player.
So there it is:
Oden: The second coming of Wilt
Aldridge: Karl Malone Jr.
Roy: The nerve center
Jones: The gluey assassin
Rudy: The ticking timebomb
Outlaw: The ninja or mutant or superpowered (I don't know how to describe him yet)
I think you're right about Outlaw
I'll second
He's ultra-talented and fits the culture perfectly.
Definitely a top 6-er. If you don't have Travis in your top 6, I'll have to question the credibility of all three of your picks and ask you where you've been all year!
by broggerboy19 on Dec 27, 2007 8:40 PM PST up reply actions
Travis
Let's revisit the Trout love when he has a 5-10 game shooting slump and his deficiencies as a player are magnified. He's not a guy that's currently a ton of help when he goes 3-12.
by Engineering Problem on Dec 28, 2007 12:28 AM PST up reply actions
True
I disagree about his contributions on off-nights. He has improved his defensive intensity a lot recently and, even when he goes 4-12, it seems that all of his makes come in the all-important 4th quarter.
I can live with that too.
by broggerboy19 on Dec 28, 2007 11:43 AM PST up reply actions
Oh
Inconsistent, yes. But definitely a keeper.
by broggerboy19 on Dec 28, 2007 11:45 AM PST up reply actions
DAVE!!!
I'm dying to know...let me guess:
-Martell
-Travis
-Jack
Assuming full potential is achieved,
Sergio's full potential is enormous, a natural point guard with blazing speed who makes everyone on the team better. The Ying to Roy's Yang. At full potential Sergio Rodriguez would be an absolute nightmare for the opposition, the guy that coaches scheme for first. (Yes, he has a long way to go, but it's possible). We have no other point guard that couldn't be replaced with the Mid Level Exception.
Martell Webster's potential is as a fantastic, complimentary piece. The guy who can score 25 but also will rebound and defend if that's what the team needs. He can play two positions and stretches the entire opposition.
Travis Outlaw can get his shot at any time. At his full potential he'd be shooting that shot at 50+%, getting out on the break, defending anyone from a point guard to a power-forward. An extremely versatile player, a mismatch in almost every situation and basketball's best emergency outlet.
At full potential we have the following line-up,
Rodriguez/Roy at point
Roy/Webster at the 2
Webster/Outaw at the 3
Aldridge/Outlaw at the 4
Oden/Aldridge at the 5
At full potential that is the best core of all time.
by EnglandDan on Dec 27, 2007 4:26 PM PST reply actions
Interesting mix
Toughie
Joel (A high quality, team oriented, back up center that prevents drop-offs defensively when Oden is out will be crucial. We don't want to be like the Shaq Lakers and have to dig deep if the big guy gets into foul trouble. Plus, with less minutes, and his recent conditioning regimen, his body should last a good while).
Rudy (a combo of Rudy and Roy will be a good bolster to the guard play. I thought Rudy had a decent three point shot, so between him and Roy, outside shooting should be ok, esp. with Aldridge as well).
Travis (he could be our Manu, the sixth man who plys 25-30 minutes and fills up the stat sheet. Plus, you cannot let go of player with the kind of 4th quarter killer instinct that he has).
Why I didn't pick other players: Roy will do a lot of handling, and Rudy has handles as well. I hate to let Sergio go, but we will be ok if we have to be without him.
Webster, Jones: Between Roy, Aldridge, Rudy, Oden (jump shot at full potential, remember) and occasionally Travis, we will enough three/point outside shooting to open up the lane
Frye: A middle-class Aldridge, he would just be duplication.
Green, McRoberts, Koppenen: Just didn't feel they could displace Rudy, Travis, and Joel.
Jack: Rudy will be better as our combo guard.
Darius: I honestly don't think my six will be lacking scoring or defense enough for him to make the cut. That, and his knees have probably shortened his career too much to be viable throughout our window. That's just speculation, so take it with a mound of salt.
This is why systems are more important than particular lineups; there will always be players you can't hold onto/don't have room for, but if your system is good, you should be able to fill in the holes with the right players (a la San Antonio) around your stars. Look at what San Antonio has done with three stars, and one constant role player (Bowen). This six gives Portland (probably) four stars, including Fernandez, and two role players. Pritchard would fill in the gaps left by shedding the others, and awaaaay we go!
Outlaw, Webster and....tough choice
I'm leaning towards Sergio over Jack or Fernandez to join Roy in the back court because they won't need another scorer who needs the ball in his hands. If all three of them develop into studs I'd be fine with whichever they pick. I like all them so whoever meshes best with Roy and the others is who they should pick.
Just 3 + Core? Aw man!
I think I have to go with Two for sure guys and then a question that continues to puzzle and plague me. The for sure guys are Travis and Martell.
Travis...I mean wow. I predicted this summer that he would have a break out season but quickly backed off that prediction when he came to camp out of shape etc. Now that he is in shape he is absolute gang busters. I still like Travis off the bench although a line up like the following could be INSANE:
PG Roy
SG Webster
SF Outlaw
PF LMA
C Oden
But I digress, I also have been very impressed with Martell this year. His shooting has been streaky but I have seen great things on the boards and some excellent defense at times. I've also been happy to see his moves to the basket. I think his athleticism is under appreciated as he is only beginning to learn how to use it to his advantage ie taking it to the hole strong or moving towards the basket without the ball. As he refines those pieces of his game he will become absolutely deadly especially in combo with Roy, Oden and LMA.
So that leaves me with the questions of the ages or at least the question of the moment. What kind of player do you want matched up with Roy? I think this really depends on to what degree he plays PG and to what degree he plays a Kobe, Lebron, Jordan style 2/3 who handles the ball and initiates the offense. Based on statements Roy has made himself I think he expects to be the PG of the future. This was a real mind-blower for me as I hadn't seen it coming and would NOT have predicted it at the beginning of the season. Some have questioned the wisdom of having him at point due to extra energy expended bringing the ball up the floor and inability to guard smaller faster PG's. Roy laughed at his inability to guard Paul and pointed out that If Paul tries to guard him he will take Paul to the Post every time.
So then what do we want in our guard complement to Roy. It seems we want a PG who can push the ball up quickly looking for transition baskets and then quickly give the ball up to Roy. The PG would then need to focus on perimeter defense and on hitting open 3's and jump shots off of Roy kick outs and the occasional pick and roll run for them. This takes a rare breed of PG. That is someone who possesses the aforementioned skills and also has little or no ego around being "The Man". Currently Steve Blake is filling this role admirably and if we were basing this on CURRENT skill level and not maxxed out potential I would probably go with Blake. But therein lies the rub. We are talking about which player with MAXXED out skills they currently possess would we take. That leaves me with two choices: Taurean Green and Petteri Kopponen. Many amongst you might scoff at these two but I think you are missing the key point. Yes, Sergio has more talent undoubtedly...but does he mesh with Roy? I think the answer is that Sergio will never be in the back court with Roy. He may (I pray) be part of an uptempo bench but he can't split ball handling duties on the court with Roy. Blake is a good fit now, but what about timelines and the fact he is at or near his ceiling? Jack obviously doesn't fit with Roy, buddies though they may be. So that leaves me with Green and Kopponen.
Green -
Can he beat a trap and push the ball up the floor quickly?
Check, he has done the former in college and the latter in several pre-season and early season games.
Can he hit the open three?
Check, he can hit the three and will do so more often in games if given the playing time. Unless McMillan was BSing Green can hit the three with frequency. He definitely could be lights out from college range if memory serves...
Can he play lockdown defense?
I believe that he can and based on his pre-season game where he virtually shutdown Iverson, I think he will eventually be a lockdown defender.
Can he settle for not being "The Man"?
This is my area of concern with Green. He had a radically different role in college from what I am proposing here. During the season thus far he has been known to jack up the ill advised 3 or drove into the Oak Tree's down low to no avail. I think however, that his trip to the D-League may have quenched those fires and now he wants to find his role on the team.
Finally, I have had a crazy feeling about Green since he first got drafted and feel he would be a great compliment to Roy IF he reaches his potential.
Sadly I don't know enough about Kopponen to make more then general statements. I have heard he is great at running a team and can shoot well. I like his height and I feel that a big 6'4" guard alongside Roy could really shore up the long rebounds off of long opponent shots. I'm not against Kopponen but I don't have enough information to work with.
So with all of that said I'm going with my gut and my brain and saying the third piece is Green. I know I will get guff for this so let the guff fly!
P.S. I would be heartbroken to see the following leave Ptown: Sergio, Pryzbyzzle, Rudy and to a lesser extent Blake (He is certainly rocking it right now!). On the other hand Frye, Jack, LaFrentz and Miles are all guys I wouldn't be sad to lose. I would love to retain Jones' services for the bench. However, given the question's parameters we will have similar if not superior skills from Martell.
Top 6
PG - Green
SG - Roy
SF - Webster
PF - LMA
C - Oden
With Outlaw as the first man off the bench with the versatility to fit in where needed.
I hate to lose Frye, but I'm not sure about Rudy. I think he's a tremendous talent, but I wonder if he'd be willing to share the ball as is the style of our current Blazer team.
by Harley on Dec 28, 2007 3:11 AM PST up reply actions
Alternative Coaching Plan for next 6 yrs
Oden 32 minutes Przy 17
Aldridge 36 Outlaw 28
Webster 25 min Jones 15
Roy 38 Rudy 24
Blake 25 (better chemistry&defense than Serg)
(We should be able to keep Przy Web Jones..love-em)
Last night I too began to wonder who to keep when potentials develope. I hoped that the current players would remain sold on sharing time for the benefit of the team and their own success and longevity, thus the following plan, salaries and egos aside.
This roster overcomes injuries, plays big or small too.
I appreciate the strong effort
This seemed easy but is really tough
C - Oden
PF - Aldridge
SG/PG - Roy
That leaves 2 positions plus 6th man. I think Outlaw or Jack make a good 6th man and will never be starters. So:
SG/PG - Rudy or Koponen, whoever is better. We don't have enough info yet.
SF - Jones. Great shot, good D and brains. I don't think Webster will develop enough consistency.
6th man - Outlaw.
Friday morning tally
Outlaw: 37
Webster: 32
Fernandez: 18
Rodriguez: 17
Orzybukka ... oh that's funny, have to leave this ... got one hand on the wrong keys and didn't notice... but you know it's Joel... 13
If we had done this after, oh say, the first five games would Travis have outpolled Martell? I think not. Martell was hot early, Travis now ... but will it last? Would Joel have had ten more votes than Jack? Might be interesting to revisit this topic at the All-Star break.
Dude
Awesome diary by Dave--best in the last month, I'd say.
I'm still dying to know what his top 6 are.
by broggerboy19 on Dec 28, 2007 11:48 AM PST up reply actions
Hey Brah
by tominhawaii on Dec 28, 2007 12:40 PM PST up reply actions
Then my apologies,
PS., Love that song...
by broggerboy19 on Dec 28, 2007 3:25 PM PST up reply actions
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