simmon's knee

He mentioned it in his newest podcast too.  I was going to post a diary and ask if anyone knew what he was talking about.  Maybe he doesn't know a knee from a heel.  It was not as fun as his other podcasts.  If you don't like him, I wouldn't bother listening to it.

Podcast
http://podloc.andomedia.com/dloadTrack.mp3?prm=1629xhttp://podloc.andomedia.com/dloadTrack.mp3?prm=2 864xhttp://espn.andohs.net/espnpod2/espnradio/sportsguy/simmons071218.mp3
Story
http://sports.espn.go.com/espn/page2/story?page=simmons/071218

"45. Bill Simmons
Definitely belongs from a talent/salary/production standpoint, but if his surgically repaired knee scared off four lottery teams before the 2006 draft, wouldn't those same MRIs alarm GMs now? Not to go all Dierdorfian on you, but it's not like we weren't so sure he wasn't really, really good heading into that draft. If teams were afraid to pick him for a specific reason, wouldn't they be afraid to trade for him for that same specific reason? You could make a strong case that he belongs 10-12 spots higher, but I'm sticking him here to be safe."

Before you ask...no, I didn't do my research either.

THIS is even funnier:

24. Greg Oden
His ceiling: Patrick Ewing, only if Ewing had major wrist surgery and microfracture knee surgery before even playing an NBA game.

he is very funny.  I would read his stuff only for the humor... not the sports expertise.

He really, and I mean REALLY liked Brandon during the 06 draft.  He thought he should go in the Top 3, referred to him as the classic guy who was great in college and a can't miss pro prospect but teams passed on him because of upside.  But, when he dropped to the 6th pick I think Simmon thought the only reason he could drop that low was because of his knees.  Basically, Simmons is assuming that he wasn't as smart as the GMs who passed on him (given his dislike of Howard as the first pick a few years back thats a semi safe assumption) and figured he must have underestimated Brandon's knee problems.  But given he dropped Wade to #8 in his trade article, I don't think he was doing any P-town hating.

I wouldn't trade Roy, straight up, for anyone BEHIND him on Simmons' list.

About the folks ahead of him?  Depends.  I consider two scenarios:  One with the Blazers where they currently are in their development; the other is pretending the Blazers are a player away from a title, and the player under consideration is That Player.  (I may propose alternate trades involving more people).

Anyway, to the list:

44.  Prince.  No, no.  I'd love to get Prince, but he's not gonna be the guy to win you the title.  Brandon has far more potential.

43.  Biedrins.  No, no.  Are you kidding?

42.  Redd.  No, probably not.  Redd would be a great guy to PAIR with Roy, but not replace him.

41.  Brand.  No, no.  Even if he hadn't blown out his knee this year, still no.  Even Z-bo kicked his butt on a regular basis.  :)

40.  Ty-ty.  No, even if we didn't have Oden waiting in the wings.  Chandler is better than Prz overall, but he's no franchise player.

39.  Gasol.  No, no.  If we didn't have Aldridge, maybe... but Gasol seems to have regressed recently.  The injury may be part of it, plus being stuck on the Grizz doesn't help.  But still, he ain't worth the max deal he has.

38.  Camby.  No, maybe.  If we didn't have Oden, and needed a stud defensive big man to anchor the middle of our title team, I might do it.  But shotblocking is overrated--if shots get swatted, it means someone got beat generally.

37.  Sheed.  No, no.  Need I say more?

36.  AI.     No, yes. Iverson would be a short-timer, due both to his age and his contract situation; plus he's not a good fit long term.  OTOH, he's a future HOFer who has done some impressive things on some bad teams.

35.  Kaman.  No, no.  The league's best Great White Stiff.  A skinny, white Eddy Curry.  And that hair, my God.

34.  Joe Johnson.  No, no.  Roy is close to surpassing Johnson already.  You have to wonder how Johnson would do on a team better than the Hawks; you have to wonder even more about a player who would willingly agree to play in Atlanta over Phoenix.

33.  Matrix.  No, maybe.  Marion is IMHO a system guy--one who would be far less useful on a team without Steve Nash.  But what he does, he does quite well.  But still, more of a whiner than a winner; Roy's got a lot more fortitude than Marion does.

32.  Deng.  Maybe, maybe.  Another bright young talent, another well-rounded, intelligent player.  And seemingly the only good player on the Bulls this year.  I'd have to consider Deng, though I think that Roy has more untapped potential.

31.  J-ho.  No, maybe.  Who's the best player on the Mavs--Howard, or Dirk?  Yet another great role player to have around--but I don't see Josh leading anyone to a title.  Roy has the potential to be Batman; Howard makes an excellent Robin.

30.  Butler.  No, no.  Butler's better as a scorer at this point, but Roy does so much else better.

29.  David West.  No, no.  A poor man's Carlos Boozer, and another guy who benefits from playing with a great point guard (Paul).  West is a load inside, and a great guy to have on your championship team.  But he's not the guy to lead it.

28.  T-Mac.  No, maybe.  I didn't dismiss McGrady as quickly as Simmons did--the dude can flat-out ball.  But still--he's been on some nice teams in his career, and still hasn't done squat.  Plus, he does have an injury history to worry about.

27.  Arenas.  Maybe, yes.  Gilbert, when he's healthy and happy, does have that "it" factor.  Trouble is, he hasn't been healthy for quite a while--and the Bullets occasionally look better without him.  Time will tell if he advances further in his career, or becomes Iverson part deux.

26.  Billups.  No, probably not.  Billups is old and expensive, doesn't play much D, and I'd rather have Roy with the ball with the team down by two and twenty seconds left.  In the right circumstances I might consider that deal--but I don't think that Chauncey at this point in his career, is a significant upgrade over Roy (again, at this point in his career).

25.  Horford.  No, no.  Though Horford has a ton of potential--if we didn't have our own Big Men With Potential, this might be a possibility.  

24.  Oden.  Yes, No.  If we didn't already have Oden, this would be a BIG gamble... obviously he doesn't fit the missing piece criteria while on the shelf.

23.  Josh Smith.  No, maybe.  Another Robin player--one with an attitude.

22.  Bynum.  No, No.  Putting him over Oden is a bit ridiculous at this point.  Though if he keeps progressing...

21.  Al Jeff. No, no.  A more athletic Zach Randolph.  Note where Minny is in the standings.  While that's hardly Jefferson's fault, he's not the guy I would ever want to build around.

20.  Amare.  Maybe, yes.  It's interesting to compare him to Dwight Howard.  Both are beasts in the middle who throw down a lot of dunks.  Difference is, Howard's a better defender, and he does his thing without having Steve Nash around.  Could Amare thrive without Nash?  

19.  Pierce.  No, yes.  Pierce is a stud--and as the 20-2 celts show, can be part of a winner.  That said, he's second banana on the Cs (with KG as banana #1), and too old to consider for the long term.

18.  Bosh.  No, no.  Says here that LaMarcus will be better than his old HS buddy.

17.  Parker.  Maybe, yes.  Parker is underrated as a PG--people always offer more praise to guys like Nash and Kidd, and upcoming stars like DW and CP, but how many rings do these guys have?  Plus, a trade for Parker would mean 41 games with Eva in the front row at the Garden.  :)

16.  Manu.  No, yes.  Right now, Manu is a more accomplished scorer--he's more experienced and gets a LOT more respect from the refs.  I expect Roy to surpass him after not too long; and Roy's already better at other aspects of the game (it's Manu's job to put the ball in the hole, that's it).

15.  Baron Davis.  No, maybe.  Maybe Baron has indeed changed his ways, in which case I might change this to a "yes"--dude can be unstoppable.  But he has some baggage to overcome, and I am still skeptical.

14.  'Melo.  Maybe, yes.  Right now, 'Melo can put the ball in the hoop as well as anyone.  And unlike some other guys in this category, he has the "it" factor.  'Course, he's a bit of a punk and doesn't play D.  If Brandon can approach 'Melo's scoring, especially in the clutch, then this becomes a no.

13.  Durant.  Yes, no.  KD has even more potential than Roy does--though Brandon is at this point the more polished player.  

12.  Dirk.  Maybe, maybe.  Unlike 'Melo, seems to lack the "it" factor.  Reminds me of Uncle Cliffy, which is not a good thing.  OTOH, he plays for a team with lousy point guards, and for a coach who got his butt handed to him by Nellie last year.  (The more interesting question:  AJ or Nate?)

11.  Boozer.  Maybe, maybe.  Boozer strikes me as another Robin rather than as a Batman... but damn if he ain't a stud.  I'd probably go with "no" for a straight-up trade, but Boozer+DW for Roy+LMA would be an interesting proposition.

10.  Kobe.  No, yes.  He's a punk, he probably wouldn't come here, and he's selfish.  But who else in the league would you rather have with the ball in his hands and the game on the line?

9.  Yao.  Maybe, maybe.  If we needed a big man, you could do far worse.  OTOH, does Yao have that killer instinct?  He still hasn't shown it.  Simmon's comparison between Yao and Rik Smits is spot-on.

8.  Wade.  Maybe, maybe.  The reason that this isn't "yes, yes" is entirely due to Wade's health.  Dude can flat-out ball, and is the real deal.

7.  KG.  Maybe, yes.  Another old guy, but one who plays at an MVP level.  Look what he did for the Celts.  OTOH, would the Blazers be 20-2 with KG in the lineup?  They might...  that said, there wasn't any way KG was coming to Portland.

6.  Nash.  Maybe, yes.  The best guy at running an offense in the league.  Main concern is health and longevity, which is why he gets a "maybe".

5.  DW.  Strong possibility, yes.  Who will end up being the better pro?  DW did nothing much his rookie year (as Sloan is infamous for not trusting rooks) and broke out his sophomore year.  Stocktoneseque in his game.  Roy had the better rookie campaign, and is looking similiarily good his sophomore year.

4.  CP3.  Strong possibility, yes.  Throw CP3 into the previous question.  Can you imagine Paul with better talent than the Hornets have?  Only concern is injuries.

3.  Duncan.  No, yes.  "No" because of age, and current prospects at the position.  

2.  D-ho.  Yes, yes.  Dude's a beast, and he's here already.  

1.  LeBron.  Yes, yes.  No question.

25.