Salary cap summer 2009

Unfortunately, there's a fair amount of misinformation out there about the summer of 2009 in regards to the Blazers.  One columnist in particular wrote about how the Blazers could make all the 'expected signings and qualifying offers' and still be $15-20 million under the cap.  This is absolutely not true.

Can the Blazers get significantly under the cap?  Yes.  Will it mean cutting players and not picking up options?  Absolutely.

Acoording to my numbers, and assuming that nobody is traded or released before then - and assuming that all options are picked up and all qualifying offers are made - here's how players would count against the cap in July of 2009:

Darius Miles - $9,000,000
Joel Przybilla - $6,857,725
Greg Oden - $5,361,240 (team option)
LaMarcus Aldridge - $5,844,827 (team option)
Steve Blake - $4,930,000 (team option)
Travis Outlaw - $4,000,000 (team option)
Brandon Roy - $3,910,816 (team option)
Sergio Rodriguez - $1,576,696 (team option)
Martell Webster - $11,313,399 (cap hold as restricted free agent)
Channing Frye - $9,491,307 (cap hold as restricted free agent)
Jarrett Jack - $6,007,869 (cap hold as restricted free agent)
Josh McRoberts - $1,007,497 (cap hold as restricted free agent)
Taurean Green - $1,007,497 (cap hold as restricted free agent)
Raef LaFrentz - $19,083,750 (cap hold as unrestricted free agent)
James Jones - $6,300,000 (cap hold as unrestricted free agent)
Rudy Fernandez - $1,165,320 (I'm assuming he'll sign in the summer of 2008)
Portland's first round pick in 2008 - $2,255,880 (assuming the #10 pick)
Joel Freeland - $824,200 (cap hold assuming he doesn't sign in the summer of 2008)
Petteri Koponen - $824,200 (cap hold assuming he doesn't sign in the summer of 2008)
Portland's first round pick in 2009 - $1,099,100 (cap hold assuming the #20 pick)

That's $101,847,323 in team salary to count against the cap - which I'm assuming will be about $60-61 million.

And, that's also 20 players, which the Blazers will not keep.  So, if the team wants to get under the cap, it must be very smart in how it deals with people.  Here are some options:

1. Renounce unrestricted free agents so that they don't count against the cap.

2. Don't offer qualifying offers to potential restricted free agents and renounce their rights so that they don't count against the cap.

3. Sign Webster, Frye and/or Jack to extensions in the summer of 2008 that will pay them less in 2009 than what their cap hold will be.

4. Don't pick up team options.

5. Trade unsigned first round picks for something that won't count against the cap in the summer of 2009 (cash, draft picks in 2010 or later, players whose contracts expire before 2009, etc.)

6. Trade any player whose contract is guaranteed in 2009-10 for something that won't count against the cap in the summer of 2009.

7. Be lucky enough to have Darius Miles retire for medical reasons and have the league rule that his salary no longer counts against the cap.

The point is that cap room in 2009 cannot come without a price being paid - having to let players go.  They can't keep everyone and be under the cap.  Pritchard, Penn and company have made some moves that make cap room in 2009 an option, not a certainty.

Now, in regards to your questions about the restricted free agents - they count against the cap in the amount of their cap hold until they are signed to a new contract (then their new contract amount counts against the cap).  In the case of Webster and Frye (and perhaps Jack), their new contracts will probably be less than their cap holds, so waiting to sign them after signing other FA's doesn't make sense.  Perhaps the best strategy (if the team plans on keeping them) would be to sign them to extensions in 2008 so that they only count against the cap in the amount of their extension, not as their large cap hold.

Your comment about 'sequence' only applies when a cap hold is lower than what a player is anticipated to sign for.  This might be true for McRoberts and Green, for example, but probably not for Webster.  So, if the team plans to keep Webster, and anticipates having cap room, its best move is probably to deal with Webster before other free agents.  If the team plans to keep McRoberts and has cap room, then its best move is probably to sign another FA before re-signing McRoberts, since his cap hold will be relatively small.

Hope this all makes sense.  Let me know if I need to explain anything differently.