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Around SBN: 2011 In Extreme Home Runs

Salary cap summer 2009

how will it work in the summer of 2009?   We have to offer a qualifying offer to Webs (and Frye and Jack), then they will be restricted FA.  If we sign them to large amounts, then salary cap space will be tight.  Can we first sign another FA, using whatever cap space there is, then match Webs on whatever RFA offer he got?  My understanding is that there is a sequence that is important: first sign non-Blazer FAs, so that it stays within salary cap, then sign Blazer FAs or extend contracts, where the salary cap does not impose restrictions.  Does this seem correct?

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I don't believe that is entirely correct.

Once the QO is submitted, the players become restricted free agents.

By CBA rule, a specific cap-hold applies. In this case the formula is 300% of the just completed season's salary.

For Webster it would be about 11.3 million; Frye about 9.5 million; and Jack about 6 million.

And all three would be restricted free agents and could decide to take all summer to test the free agent market. That would totally kill the cap space plan.

I used to misunderstand this too.

What this essentially means, is that if portland is serious about the cap space plan and they want to keep Webster for instance, they need to sign him to an extension this summer. Otherwise, they might be forced to trade him by Feb-2008, or renounce the rights to him at the end of next season.

by moldorf on Dec 15, 2007 3:30 PM PST reply actions  

Here's the scoop
Unfortunately, there's a fair amount of misinformation out there about the summer of 2009 in regards to the Blazers.  One columnist in particular wrote about how the Blazers could make all the 'expected signings and qualifying offers' and still be $15-20 million under the cap.  This is absolutely not true.

Can the Blazers get significantly under the cap?  Yes.  Will it mean cutting players and not picking up options?  Absolutely.

Acoording to my numbers, and assuming that nobody is traded or released before then - and assuming that all options are picked up and all qualifying offers are made - here's how players would count against the cap in July of 2009:

Darius Miles - $9,000,000
Joel Przybilla - $6,857,725
Greg Oden - $5,361,240 (team option)
LaMarcus Aldridge - $5,844,827 (team option)
Steve Blake - $4,930,000 (team option)
Travis Outlaw - $4,000,000 (team option)
Brandon Roy - $3,910,816 (team option)
Sergio Rodriguez - $1,576,696 (team option)
Martell Webster - $11,313,399 (cap hold as restricted free agent)
Channing Frye - $9,491,307 (cap hold as restricted free agent)
Jarrett Jack - $6,007,869 (cap hold as restricted free agent)
Josh McRoberts - $1,007,497 (cap hold as restricted free agent)
Taurean Green - $1,007,497 (cap hold as restricted free agent)
Raef LaFrentz - $19,083,750 (cap hold as unrestricted free agent)
James Jones - $6,300,000 (cap hold as unrestricted free agent)
Rudy Fernandez - $1,165,320 (I'm assuming he'll sign in the summer of 2008)
Portland's first round pick in 2008 - $2,255,880 (assuming the #10 pick)
Joel Freeland - $824,200 (cap hold assuming he doesn't sign in the summer of 2008)
Petteri Koponen - $824,200 (cap hold assuming he doesn't sign in the summer of 2008)
Portland's first round pick in 2009 - $1,099,100 (cap hold assuming the #20 pick)

That's $101,847,323 in team salary to count against the cap - which I'm assuming will be about $60-61 million.

And, that's also 20 players, which the Blazers will not keep.  So, if the team wants to get under the cap, it must be very smart in how it deals with people.  Here are some options:

  1. Renounce unrestricted free agents so that they don't count against the cap.

  2. Don't offer qualifying offers to potential restricted free agents and renounce their rights so that they don't count against the cap.

  3. Sign Webster, Frye and/or Jack to extensions in the summer of 2008 that will pay them less in 2009 than what their cap hold will be.

  4. Don't pick up team options.

  5. Trade unsigned first round picks for something that won't count against the cap in the summer of 2009 (cash, draft picks in 2010 or later, players whose contracts expire before 2009, etc.)

  6. Trade any player whose contract is guaranteed in 2009-10 for something that won't count against the cap in the summer of 2009.

  7. Be lucky enough to have Darius Miles retire for medical reasons and have the league rule that his salary no longer counts against the cap.

The point is that cap room in 2009 cannot come without a price being paid - having to let players go.  They can't keep everyone and be under the cap.  Pritchard, Penn and company have made some moves that make cap room in 2009 an option, not a certainty.

Now, in regards to your questions about the restricted free agents - they count against the cap in the amount of their cap hold until they are signed to a new contract (then their new contract amount counts against the cap).  In the case of Webster and Frye (and perhaps Jack), their new contracts will probably be less than their cap holds, so waiting to sign them after signing other FA's doesn't make sense.  Perhaps the best strategy (if the team plans on keeping them) would be to sign them to extensions in 2008 so that they only count against the cap in the amount of their extension, not as their large cap hold.

Your comment about 'sequence' only applies when a cap hold is lower than what a player is anticipated to sign for.  This might be true for McRoberts and Green, for example, but probably not for Webster.  So, if the team plans to keep Webster, and anticipates having cap room, its best move is probably to deal with Webster before other free agents.  If the team plans to keep McRoberts and has cap room, then its best move is probably to sign another FA before re-signing McRoberts, since his cap hold will be relatively small.

Hope this all makes sense.  Let me know if I need to explain anything differently.

by Storyteller on Dec 15, 2007 3:58 PM PST reply actions  

Thanks for all that work
You also put it in an easy to read format.  My only problem is Portland's first round pick in 2008.  I think they'll have a pretty low draft pick after losing to the Rockets (with a shout out to Fatty) in the Western Conference Finals.
Randee of the Redwoods '08

by tominhawaii on Dec 15, 2007 4:38 PM PST up reply actions  

LOL
Keep dreaming the dream....

by Storyteller on Dec 15, 2007 4:49 PM PST up reply actions  

yeah
i understand that a lot better than i thought i would going into your post

by DominicanAvenger on Dec 15, 2007 4:59 PM PST up reply actions  

Yes
Basically, Portland has to renounce Raef's bird-rights to remove the cap hold (which they will do, obviously).

by il serpente on Dec 15, 2007 8:41 PM PST up reply actions  

Wonderful Job
That had to take a lot of time.

We appreciate your effort.

I hope we do lock up Webster & Jack ASAP.

"Life is a meaningless sequence of events in between Blazer championships"

by broggerboy19 on Dec 15, 2007 10:32 PM PST up reply actions  

Great, thanks
This is very helpful, I appreciate it.

Rather than starting at 100M and working backwards, you could start at around 37.7M and work forwards.  That's what you get with the top eight minus Blake and plus Rudy.  Assuming Freeland and Koponen stay overseas, the 2008 first rounder also stockpiled overseas (Batum or Gallinari, for example), and Raef is gone, that leaves Blake, Webs, Frye, Jones, Jack, McRob and Green to add in, while still preserving enough space to sign one or more top vets.  Let's say the cap is 61M and we want to have 12M to spare, that puts the target at 49M, not much room (11M beyond 37.7).  Here's one scenario:

keep Green and McRob 2M
sign Webster and Jones to deals like TO: 8M
Blake for 1M

If we want to keep more, we need to find a way to get Darius off the cap, which would really give us freedom.  Of course, I would expect at least some moves in the interim, that will change the landscape a bit.  Anyhow, fun to think about.  How would you try to do this?  It seems like it is the last chance for the foreseeable future to have any capspace whatsoever.

by BrailleTaser on Dec 15, 2007 6:30 PM PST reply actions  

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