2009 or...2008?
by moldorf on Oct 14, 2007 10:18 AM PDT
79 comments
It's fairly well accepted now that if the blazers are going to make a big move roster-wise it will be in the off-season of 2009. The "cap-space plan" is 'apparent' in the expiring nature of several contracts.
But achieving either a major free agent signing or using the cap-space won't be that simple or easy. And portland would have to make some sacrifices as well.
The first problem with that plan is that it's 'waiting till the last minute'. If for some reason portland can't swing a deal, the cap-space
will vanish and so will portland's ability to add the "icing on the cake", at least it will using cap-space. Keep in mind that webster, jack, and frye will be eligible for extensions next summer I believe, with their qualifying offers occuring in the summer of 2009. And Roy and Aldridge will be eligible for their extensions that summer as well.
Then there is the simple numbers game. Assume the salary cap in 2009 will be 61 million dollars. If you add up the player salaries that portland would be obligated to at that time it's about 55 million. Then if you add a 1st round pick in 2008, likely a lottery pick, and the cap hold for another 1st round pick in 2009, portland's total
salary base could be around 59 million.
That leaves portland with about 2-3 million in cap-space. To build sufficient cap-space to sign a good free agent or make a trade, portland would have to start 'dumping' contracts. Obviously, there are 3 players that are eligible. James Jones's contract expires, and portland has the team option on blake and outlaw. But in order to gain the 11 million in cap-space their contracts equal, portland would also have to renounce the rights to those players in order to eliminate the
cap hold their contracts apply. And portland would also have to renounce their MLE (mid-level exception) and BAE. That means those 3 players would almost certainly sign with other teams. Portland would lose them.
Portland could also consider not extending the qualifying offers to Webster, frye and jack. That would add considerable cap space, but once again they would have to renounce those players and would then lose them to other teams.
Fans have been holding out hope that somehow Darius Miles would either take a medical retirement or be traded for an expiring. Those are simply not realistic options and I would guess Kevin Pritchard recognizes that. The Miles contract is Nash and Patterson reminding KP that they were there first.
My point is that waiting untill the summer of 2009 is risky, because the options portland would have are somewhat limited and the window of opportunity will close quickly. Furthermore, at this point it appears that several teams are angling for major cap-space that same summer as well. Portland will have a lot of competition and the price of 'shopping' could be steep.
So maybe, next summer would be a much better window of opportunity for portland. If they trade players rather then simply renouncing them the blazers could get a return on investment. And if portland has a lottery pick next year and convinces Fernandez to sign, they would have 17 players and would have to make some roster decisions in any event.
Those factors alone would mean portland would have more otions next summer then a year later. Looking at it in a calculating fashion, portland would have the expiring contracts of Lafrentz, Blake, and Outlaw; they could have a lottery pick in the 2008 draft; they could have several decent young players with attractive rookie scale contracts; and they would possess the rights to Fernandez, Kaponen, and Freeland. Those would appear to be ample assets to pick and choose from for adding that "icing".
Then there is the apparent fact that few teams will have major cap space next summer, but there could be a substantial number of free agents available. So, trades, and especially sign & trades, could be the major instrument of player movement next summer and portland could be a major player in that market. And that would also leave them their MLE for both 2008 and 2009.
I'm also thinking about the major roster changes portland has undergone this summer. Next year, if Oden returns, fernandez comes over, and a lottery pick is added, then portland would have some major changes next summer as well. At a certain point, portland will need to enter a season with few changes for the interest of continuity. Remaking the core every summer is excititng for fans, but maybe not good for the development of a young team.
So there it is, maybe the cap-space plan is actually a fall-back position. I know that KP could actually have a specific player in mind but the CBA seems to make planning like that almost impossible. All things considered: oden's return, fernandez, possibly another lottery pick, and the option I'm outlining could mean that next off-season is even more eventfull then this one.
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Hmmm...
Appreciate your grasp of CBA regulations.
It's all a hazy blur to me.
I still believe they are targetting a specific player for that '09 class and will probably renounce contracts to make it happen.
We've pondered back and forth who that player will be: Kobe, Paul, etc...
Who the heck knows?
by broggerboy19 on Oct 14, 2007 11:34 AM PDT reply actions 0 recs
First of all...
The problem with having a FA 'target', is that a lot can happen between now and then to change the status of any projected free agent. I don't think you can count on any possible target actually being available 2 years from now.
And as I said, it looks now like portland could be one of several teams with potential major cap-space that summer. Competition could be intense.
by moldorf on Oct 14, 2007 11:54 AM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
True
Nearly every player in the league wants to play for Portland someday.
We have youth, potential, a dominant and gregarious center-to-be, and a solid team ethic.
All things equal, we have a great chance to steal the services of a bona fide player from another team.
If that's what we want by that time.
by broggerboy19 on Oct 14, 2007 2:38 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
We gots time...
by BlueBooYay on Oct 14, 2007 2:41 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
`08/'09
At Center;
GO, Pryz
Center/PF:
LMA
Raef
Power Forward:
LMA
Goodness
Raef
McLovin'
PF/SF
TO
Small Forward:
Web
TO
JJ
Guards:
Broy
JJ1
Blake
Rudy
El Mago
Green
This is a "Buffet of Goodness" to pick from.
by BlueBooYay on Oct 17, 2007 8:02 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
Sorry...
by BlueBooYay on Oct 17, 2007 8:05 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
Excuse me
by BlueBooYay on Oct 17, 2007 8:09 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
Koponen
by BlueBooYay on Oct 18, 2007 11:26 AM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
but we don't have space...
I think outlaw will be gone, but we'll see. Showing up out of shape did not help him at all. If miles can play, he may well be trade able with some young talent.
Jack seems tradeable in terms of stats, but his leadership is important. Blake is also tradeable, but i feel TERRIBLE doing that to the guy.
That's three or four players we can trade for one.
We'll then have room for our draft pick, rudy, and the finland kid.
Without the trades, we have no room.
by ratbastird on Oct 14, 2007 3:55 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
Space will cause change.
Change is the only constant.
by BlueBooYay on Oct 14, 2007 5:16 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
desirable FA location?
It is not like the Bob Whitsitt era where players were getting so many perks that people wanted to come to portland.
Also, we have, in the past, had a fairly caustic media presence to go along with fairly crappy weather. Both of those might deter a big name FA from jumping into what could be a negative situation.
by jonestr on Oct 15, 2007 10:04 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
Desirable
- Portland has the best fans in the NBA. (A lot of players will find that appealing).
- Portland is going to be the place every free agent is going to want to go in two years. (They were talking about the possibility of playing with Oden, Roy, and Aldridge, and winning lots and lots of championships.)
by jscot on Oct 16, 2007 12:42 AM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
please post a link
BTW Grant Hill probably took about the most money he could get considering he is some seriously damaged goods. Also, after all of their angling to try and get under the cap, which caused them to lose solid rotation players, I doubt the suns are real contenders.
by jonestr on Oct 16, 2007 1:12 AM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
Are you kidding me?!
by einman77 on Oct 16, 2007 6:17 AM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
Thank you einman77
It can't be said of everyone, but there is a large contingent of the Blazer fanbase that never stopped loving the team despite the losses and scandals.
Some may have turned away for awhile, but only in disgust for what was once a great and proud franchise that went rotten in the hands of the wrong people.
Once management turned around, and the players became wholesome again, the fans came back in droves.
We're gonna be a lottery team this year, most likely, and yet will have very solid attendance rates at home games.
As far as free agents, some members of Team USA already inquired about joining Portland to Channing Frye this Summer.
That's the same caliber of players that may be available in Summer of '09.
Never underestimate the possibility of attaining every NBA player's wildest fantasy: championships, and lots of them...
PS., The Suns are going to be big-time contenders this year. Where have you been?
by broggerboy19 on Oct 16, 2007 8:38 AM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
Ok now THAT I want a link to
by Idog1976 on Oct 16, 2007 12:23 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
Don't have time
According to him (or whoever it was that reported it--I'm not entirely sure), the player(s) in question were big men and that's all he could get out of Channing.
That would, of course, exclude Kobe Bryant.
So there you have it.
by broggerboy19 on Oct 16, 2007 1:14 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
Checked for link...
It defenitly was stated by Frye that a couple of guys were asking about Portland and expressing interest in playing there. I remember him responding when asked that he wouldn't say who it was.
by tssbro on Oct 16, 2007 7:11 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
Here's the Link
http://mikebarrettsblog.blogspot.com/2007_09_01_archive.html
"I was in Las Vegas, with the select team, working out against Team USA," said Frye. "I heard some guys talking about when they're going back to their teams to start working out with their teammates. I mentioned that we already had 13 guys in Portland, and they looked at me like I was nuts. This is a special group of guys, and I am so happy to be in this situation." Frye also said he talked a couple of players on the Dream Team who joked with him about also wanting to somehow join this Portland team. I pressed Frye on who he was talking about, but he didn't want to get any more specific. He does swear the story is true"
by moldorf on Oct 16, 2007 7:39 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
Children, Children...
Once upon a time the Blazers were good...very good in fact. They not only won on the court, they also had a good reputation as a team. Every player that spoke publicly about the team said how much they loved playing in front of these fans, in this city, where it was so beautiful and people were so enthused.
During this glorious time the Blazers never had trouble acquiring very good players. In fact they were beating down the doors to wear red and black. The league cursed and said it was unfair when Portland got Rod Strickland. Charles Barkley was campaigning to become part of the team. Would someone forego millions of dollars to sign here on the cheap? Of course not. Nobody does that who isn't on the last legs of their career looking for a ring. But money being equal, Portland was among the most attractive destinations in the league.
Not THAT much has changed about the city in the 15 years since this was the norm. The things that were making Portland unattractive had little to do with the environment and everything to do with the team losing and being mismanaged into oblivion. Now that those two things are fixed, the attitude is good, and the players are top-notch I would bet with a little success Portland will again become a very nice destination.
--Dave
by Dave on Oct 16, 2007 9:11 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
I would argue,
by broggerboy19 on Oct 16, 2007 11:01 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
Thanks, Uncle Dave
The guys who only want LA or NY won't come, but we'll live without them. People might not like Portland winters, but compared to Seattle, Milwaukie, Chicago, Indianapolis, NY, Boston, Denver....
What's a little rain?
Would someone forgo millions to play here? It depends on the guy. It depends on how many millions he already has stashed away, and how many millions he is making in endorsements. If you're making 30 million a year in endorsements, and you can give up 2-3 million a year in salary to win a championship, it might be worth it.
You might even come out ahead by taking a salary cut and playing for a championship team -- you might make more in endorsements.
Suppose the L*kers miss the playoffs the next two years, but we win 45-50 games in 08-09. Would Kobe want to come here? What does he care about a few million dollars here and there? He wants to win before its too late. It wouldn't shock me if he did want to come. (It would shock and dismay me if we took him).
by jscot on Oct 17, 2007 1:05 AM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
suns and FA
As for the suns they lost their defensive coach in Ivaroni, and they are propped up on the aching back of steve nash. Marion has the potential to become a malcontent and show everyone he can score on his own, and they have not harvested any new talent in the last 2 years. If you are a suns fan you are hoping that Marcus Banks and Barbosa quickly learn how to be pg's and that Diaw can find his touch again.
by jonestr on Oct 16, 2007 9:21 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
True,
In my spotty memory, I can't seem to recall a time when the Suns ever really STANK.
They always seemed to field above average, exciting basketball teams, and occasionally (like under Sir Charles or Nash), they attained some degree of greatness.
Of course, I am only now recovering from a long basketball coma, so perhaps I missed some years of cellar dwelling in the near past.
by broggerboy19 on Oct 16, 2007 11:07 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
Yeah
Actually Marbury has done that everywhere he went. I guess it should be a new verb.
"That team got Marburied."
--Dave
by Dave on Oct 17, 2007 2:02 AM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
Well
by broggerboy19 on Oct 18, 2007 1:13 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
Little Doubt
We have fifteen on roster, I think only Green's contract is up after this year. That means that even if we let him go (which I doubt), we'll have fourteen.
Rudy plans to come over, and they are planning on bringing him. That's fifteen. A first round pick makes sixteen (unless we draft another euro to stockpile in Europe for a while).
So, yes, there will be a trade, either during this year, or after the season.
Possibly by that time, we will feel confident that we've got a solution at SF or PG. I don't really think the PG situation will be settled in one season, but we have three guys at SF who all might have the potential. I'm not counting on any of them, but if one of them really steps up, then that affects the kind of trade we might make.
I suspect that we'll trade a player (or two) and our first round pick for a higher pick. That won't hit our cap space (might actually help it), and will keep options open for 09 while giving us a chance to draft someone who might solve one of our problem positions.
It partly depends on which pick we get, I suppose.
by jscot on Oct 14, 2007 1:02 PM PDT reply actions 0 recs
I think
by jorga on Oct 14, 2007 5:24 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
Good point
He was good in summer league, but I don't know if he's good enough.
by ratbastird on Oct 14, 2007 5:57 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
Major moves
Next year we'll need to clear room for the new picks and get rid of the deadwood or at least the wood that's less lively.
by ratbastird on Oct 14, 2007 2:12 PM PDT reply actions 0 recs
Well
Nonetheless, I wouldn't discount the option of waiting two years to bake this team, or the possibility that KP does indeed have a particular 09-classer in mind.
One year doesn't seem like enough time to really grasp who should stay and who should go.
Especially considering the extreme youth of the team.
If they decide anyone should go next year, it is probably one of our PG's or veteran players.
Most likely to stay:
LMA
Roy
Oden
Rudy
Green (Nate's boy)
LaFrentz (contract)
Miles (contract)
Possible departures:
Sergio
Jack
Blake
Frye
McLovin
Petteri
08 pick
Martell
Travis
Only one of the list of departures has to be gone by next year. It will probably be one of the PG's, and if I had to guess it would be Blake unless Jack has a really crappy showing.
All the other prospects simply have too much potential to give up on after one more year.
And chemistry takes TIME to develop. How can we surmise what elements to that chemistry are critical after just one season?
I say we're gonna wait, and I think it's the right thing to do.
by broggerboy19 on Oct 14, 2007 3:04 PM PDT reply actions 0 recs
Ooops
If we do make the playoffs, you're not likely to see much of a shake up, and the 08 pick is probably traded for future assets.
by broggerboy19 on Oct 14, 2007 3:12 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
People say that every draft
I don't think things will be status quo next season. We need to make room and make decisions. We need to make those decisions before others in the league decide that we decided wisely.
We'll have moves this summer or before, for sure.
by ratbastird on Oct 14, 2007 3:50 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
Agreed
BTW, Batum will most likely not be a #1 or #2 pick. He is currently projected at #7 or #8 the last time I checked. Sure, there may be other stars in that draft, but nothing really entices me at this time. Do you have someone you like outside of Rose or Batum?
by broggerboy19 on Oct 14, 2007 5:09 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
Not really
I need to see people play to get a feel for their game before I can really form an opinion. Can't do that without a TV, very well.
by ratbastird on Oct 14, 2007 5:56 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
But
by einman77 on Oct 14, 2007 8:22 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
More top prospects in 2008 draft
"But the '08 freshman class is special, too.
At the top of the list is Kansas State forward Michael Beasley, a super-athletic, sharp-shooting big man who is sometimes called Kenyon Martin with a jump shot.
He's closely followed by Memphis point guard Rose, USC guard Mayo and Indiana combo guard Eric Gordon.
It doesn't stop there. DeAndre Jordan (Texas A&M), Donte Green (Syracuse), Kevin Love (UCLA) and Jerryd Bayless (Arizona) are also first-round candidates."
http://insider.espn.go.com/nba/draft2008/insider/columns/story?columnist=ford_chad&page=Class-20 08
Those are just the incoming freshman, the link has his thoughts on the upperclassman and international dudes as well.
His conclusion?
"Overall the 2008 draft seems deep, especially with quality point guards. The draft also appears to be strong at the center position. Forwards, however, are almost nonexistent in this draft."
by usmcr3049 on Oct 15, 2007 10:13 AM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
More
I hope we can get Rose. On Chad Ford's podcast there was a quote about Rose being the best pg prospect since Jason Kidd. Having talent like that would be a welcome change to pg by committee.
BTW
I have kicked this around before, but does anyone have any comment about Nates ability to coach a pg? I think his expectations for a pg might not jibe with the new breed of scoring pg, and he is probably harder on pg's since he was one himself.
by jonestr on Oct 15, 2007 10:14 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
Your point is well taken
Counting all the contracts it's possible for us to pay in the summer of 2009 would mean retaining Jack, Blake, Sergio, and Petteri Koponen. I feel safe saying that will not happen. It would also mean keeping both Lamarcus and Channing Frye. I don't think that will happen either. Nor need we keep Joel Freeland necessarily. I agree Darius Miles will not take a medical exception but if he could be bought out and another team signs him, even for $4 million a year, that gives us more room. I'm not sure we keep both Travis and Martell either. My gut tells me that the roster will be much thinner by the time we start thinking about free agents.
However if any or all of those players do end up being the answer we are also free to keep them without penalty or extra cost.
Therefore one of two things will happen: either we already have the players we need and won't need a significant free agent or we don't and will renounce them and will have a chance to get a significant free agent.
Also I don't share the qualms about just releasing players in this situation. Normally you'd think of a flat release as a loss. In this case, when it brings cap space to sign a free agent, it's like a straight up trade. Using an absurdly extreme example, if Outlaw, Frye, and Blake turned out to be good (but not great) players would you trade them straight up for a Kobe-like talent? Absolutely. You wouldn't even blink. Their combined $13 million in salary could do exactly that. I'm not saying that will happen. I'm saying if that were the scenario we wouldn't think twice about cutting them any more than we'd think twice about trading them.
--Dave
by Dave on Oct 14, 2007 7:49 PM PDT reply actions 0 recs
And by the way
--Dave
by Dave on Oct 14, 2007 7:51 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
Out of curiosity
He loves this team and speaks highly of it and I think he's and excellent 3rd man for the PF/C position.
by ratbastird on Oct 14, 2007 8:10 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
Mostly
Of course it's too early to be talking about things like this with certainty, but if you're asking me how I think it's going to turn out, that's my best guess.
--Dave
by Dave on Oct 14, 2007 10:26 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
Frye
As to his 'price', you could be correct, although if he was content to come off the bench and wanted to be in portland, he might not demand as much money.
But the biggest reason he may be moved could be because he'd be part of the price if portland was to swing a major trade. If he has a good season his value will go up considerably.
On the other hand, I think the blazers will be reluctant to move either him or pryzbilla until it's apparent Oden has fully recovered and that might not be for a couple of years.
by moldorf on Oct 15, 2007 6:12 AM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
I agree with
Unless he flops entirely, his presence is quintessential to a team with an injury-prone frontline.
Imagine we're in Game 6 of the NBA Finals and either Oden or LMA goes down.
Gonna hate yourself for unloading the Buffet in that highly possible scenario.
by broggerboy19 on Oct 15, 2007 8:42 AM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
You guys think like fantasy league GM's
That's fine so long as he's under his rookie contract. But let's assume he performs at a level equal to or above that of his rookie season. He still is only a backup to Aldridge. He may be viewed as a talented and valuable player, but all that is going to do is drive up his salary. In other words he becomes a luxury we may not be able to afford.
If he averages something between his rookie and 2nd seasons, it may keep his price tag down, but it also means he may not really be all that valuable.
I think Frye is most likely seen by Pritchard as valuable piece for making deals. The only way he's here beyond 2, perhaps 3 years from now is if he beats out Aldridge. At this point Pryzbilla is more valuable to the team than Frye.
by timg56 on Oct 15, 2007 1:32 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
Don't ever
Dave's appraisal of Frye's skill set was certainly accurate, but so is our understanding of an injury-prone front-line.
Let's not assume how much certain players will demand in the coming years.
Wise athletes understand that they may have to give up salary to remain in an ideal situation, and Frye is VERY happy to be a Blazer at the moment.
PS., He is a valuable piece for making deals, but that can be said of any one of our various assets at several positions. There's no reason why Frye can't be a productive, long-term backup in a nine man rotation.
by broggerboy19 on Oct 15, 2007 2:21 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
Agreed
Frye is a back-up for sure, and I think he knows that, but he's a DARN good back-up. Plus... pryz tends to get injured and we'll see about oden. the extra insurance is good.
by ratbastird on Oct 15, 2007 4:51 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
Frye has a lot to prove
His sophomore season was what I expected.
If I see him take it to the basket and finally develop a post game then I will be fan, but not a minute before then.
by jonestr on Oct 15, 2007 10:19 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
I like frye's personality
by ratbastird on Oct 17, 2007 9:11 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
He may love it here now
Disclaimer: I'm a native Oregonian, lived most of my life in the PNW and I get shriveled up and crabby without rain.
by jorga on Oct 16, 2007 11:23 AM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
as we get smarter
Still, it sounded like a lot of it is the people too. People make a huge difference.
It's all a long ways off. Still have 82 games to get through first to see what we have :)
by ratbastird on Oct 17, 2007 9:14 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
Guys, the only assumption I'm making
If he turns out to be really good in his own right, then he will likely be looking at a new contract in the $9 - $12 million a year range. That's a simple assessment of the market. At that price, he is probably a luxury Portland can't afford for a backup. Thinking Frye may be willing to give a significant discount to remain in Portland IS an assumption and one I believe to be unrealistic. It is one thing for a player who has already received the big payout to accept a low contract to play for a team of his choice (ala Payton, Malone, Webber, Hill). It is quite another for a guy in his prime, coming off his rookie contract to do so.
Should Fyre average what he's done to date (10 - 12 pts & 4 - 6 rbs per game), it is possible he could be re-signed in the $5 - $6 million a year range and hope that nobody wants to overpay for him or that he's so comfortable in Portland that he'll take ~ a million a year less to stay. The question then possibly becomes "Who do we keep? Fyre at PF or a Joel Pryzbilla who averages 8 & 12 off the bench.
by timg56 on Oct 16, 2007 8:19 AM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
$9-$12M/year
If does end up that good, then maybe HE is the free agent we need to sign. After all, we could use a back up for Aldridge that can score in case LMA goes down. We can do without Oden's offense but we can't do without Aldridge's.
However, Channing is a team player on a deep squad, and is not considered a main option on offense, except maybe with the second unit.
That doesn't sound like the type of situation that lends itself to big contract numbers.
PS., Joel probably won't be averaging double figures in rebounds when Oden returns. I just don't see him getting enough minutes to pull that off, unless he turns into Dennis Rodman on the boards.
by broggerboy19 on Oct 16, 2007 1:25 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
The Free Agent Market..
And to an extent I do agree that the difference between renouncing or trading players is insignificant if the player portland lands is the 'same'.
It's not certain, but as I mentioned there could be several teams with significant cap space in 2009, so it may not be a buyer's market. That wasn't the case this summer as I believe there were only 2 players that changed teams and signed for more then the MLE...Lewis and Kopono.
As to your Kobe example, allow me to offer another possibility. Which all-star player seems to have a fixation with the blazers and has mentioned them in his blog many times? He keeps promising to drop 50 points on the blazers but he has also been very complementary to the fans and the franchise. I'm speaking of Gilbert Arenas of course. He has said he'd like to play on the west coast as well.
Of course he seems to be a rather large flake, but it's hard to understand why he would pick the blazers to obsess on. He's also only 25 I believe. And coincidentally he could be an unrestricted free agent in 2009. Of course he has said he'll opt out after this season, so if he does, the only way portland could get him is if Arenas almost blackmailed the wizards into trading him here in a sign and trade. Think the wizards would be interested in the 7th pick in the draft, lafrentz's expiring, sergio, outlaw and the rights to freeland if their choice was to see Arenas walk?
Highly unlikely, but if he doesn't opt out next year, there's cause for intrigue.
by moldorf on Oct 14, 2007 9:56 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
Interesting
How would he fit on this team in two years? Maybe an Arenas and Roy starting backcourt?
by tssbro on Oct 14, 2007 11:10 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
I'd be good with that
by jamon51 on Oct 16, 2007 1:25 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
Frye might not be around
by Rodendridge on Oct 14, 2007 8:46 PM PDT reply actions 0 recs
Frye will do well
And Kobe... we better not trade for kobe. I know he has talent, but we need culture too.
by ratbastird on Oct 14, 2007 8:49 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
All of this
by einman77 on Oct 14, 2007 11:06 PM PDT reply actions 0 recs
We wouldn't ban you from the site for that
--Dave
by Dave on Oct 14, 2007 11:09 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
The one with spikes on it?
Bad BlazersEdger! Bad!!
by broggerboy19 on Oct 15, 2007 8:44 AM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
Kobe? Gilbert?
- NBA teams are not fantasy league teams.
- How does either of these guys fit intop what Pritchard is trying to build?
by timg56 on Oct 15, 2007 1:38 PM PDT reply actions 0 recs
Maybe because
it's just some entertaining conjecture.
However, I do think that a roy/arenas backcourt would have the potential to be phenomenal. They are both good ballhandlers. Arenas averaged 6 assists a game last year and had a 2 to 1 assist/turnover ratio. He has been a volume shooter and that would have to change, but i haven't seen any reports that he is a 'bad' character, just kind of eccentric. He has fun playing the game, that's not a crime.
But there's almost no chance it will happen. I think he's in a 'show me the money' mode and that's why he may opt out.
by moldorf on Oct 15, 2007 1:52 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
well said
I don't like Arenas in red and black myself. One high-scoring starter in the backcourt is plenty.
We need a PG that will distribute, play hard-nosed D, and keep the offense flowing.
Kobe is interesting as a possibility, but probably too controversial to the fan base and contradictory to the culture.
But I wouldn't count anything out of KP's imagination at this point in time.
The guy's a miracle worker in part because he can think outside the box.
by broggerboy19 on Oct 15, 2007 2:26 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
"He has been a volume shooter ...
That's one of the problems with idle speculation. We tend to relax the normal standards we hold stuff that is real to.
The idea of seeing Gil's stat line in a Portland box score allows us to forget or ignore a basic fact - people rarely change who or what they are. Experts (and folks with common sense) say this one of the most basic pieces of advice one should follow when entering into a relationship. To think that Arenas will change from a volume shooter to a pass first, defense oriented PG is to believe that a leopard will change it's spots in for zebra stripes and become a grazing herd animal.
by timg56 on Oct 16, 2007 8:35 AM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
Concur
by broggerboy19 on Oct 16, 2007 11:46 AM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
Well You certainly
But fundamentally, what you're saying is that Arenas is uncoachable and selfish. That he would be unwilling to modify his game a bit for the good of a new team. I haven't got that impression of Arenas, perhaps you can enlighten me as to why you think he'd be unwilling to consider improving his game.
by moldorf on Oct 16, 2007 4:54 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
Gil plays with a chip on his shoulder.
It has nothing to do with Arenas being selfish or uncoachable. And we would not be asking him to modify his game "a bit". We would be asking him to completely change his outlook. That's a lot to ask of any player, particularly so of one who is considered an All-Star talent.
I also think it is a mistake to assume Roy as a point guard. That's not his best position and even he is on record as saying so. Arenas would be playing the point, which means he starts out each possession with the ball most of the time.
McMillan is looking for a floor general who plays good defense and keeps the offense ticking. That is not a description of Gilbert Arenas. He is a surprisingly poor defender whose idea of initiating the offense is to shoot 50% of the time. (Actually it was 23% of the time last year, but that doesn't include getting fouled in the act of shooting. By comparison, Zach took 20% of the shots in Portland's offense last year.)
by timg56 on Oct 17, 2007 8:04 AM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
Thanks
KP has said he is targeting a player and that everybody would be surprised by who it is. That opens the door to speculate a bit about who he may be targeting. Kobe would certainly be a surprise to me and so would Arenas.
2. That is why I asked the question:
to see if people thought he would fit on the Blazers. He doesn't seem like an untradeable guy either. He is good, and valuable but is he untouchable?
by tssbro on Oct 15, 2007 8:02 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
just something to add to this
the link discusses how the exceptions work against the cap. If Moldorf is right and the link is right we would be over the cap.
by jonestr on Oct 15, 2007 9:58 PM PDT reply actions 0 recs
It All Depends
by moldorf on Oct 16, 2007 6:31 AM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
Interesting
Trying to target players and get good value out of your guys is obviously the antithesis of what all GM's are trying to do.
Anecdotally, a lot fantasy managers now stay away from iffy character guys as they tend to get suspended or benched for their behavior, which obviously hurts their production. Examples are the average draft positions of guys like Ron Artest and Stephen Jacksoon.
by jonestr on Oct 15, 2007 10:26 PM PDT reply actions 0 recs
In speculating when we should make a move
Do we need help at center?
No. Greg Oden fills that need and Joel is likely to be seen as an above average backup.
We pretty obviously do not need a PF. Aldridge looks like he may become the best 4 in the west behind Duncan and perhaps Nowitzki.
Not only can the same be said for shooting guard with Roy, but with Webster and Fernandez, we have a couple of guys who could be stars in their own right.
That leaves point and SF. We currently have rights to 5 guys at point. Blake looks to be adequate (at worse) and I've argued that Jack has a fair chance of being on par with the two guys he was drafted with (Paul & Williams). We certainly do not have a need for a backup PG.
Personally, I don't see much chance of anybody better than the guys we have being available in the next two years, but what the hell, if you want to speculate that Chris Paul is going to come to Portland, that's no different than my wishing Josh Howard was wearing red & black.
As I see it, Portland's biggest needs are a quality small forward and a defensive energy player off the bench that can play two or possibly three positions. With the amount of starting talent we look to have at three positions, we don't necessarily need a star at SF. We also have at least three guys who can try to seize that role. There is the added possibility of, on occasion, using Roy and even Aldridge at that spot. Finally, it is probably the easiest position to fill through the draft.
If I'm Pritchard, I'm concentrating on finding that multipurpose, high energy guy who can play as well with the starters as with the second unit. In otherwords I want a guy who is going to be a Sixth Man of the Year candidate. Someone like John Havelchek, Detleff Schrempf, Mario Ellie, AC Green, Matt Harpring, etc.
PS - although it means I'm the one now on mushrooms, I'd argue that Victor Khryapa has the potential to fill that role.
by timg56 on Oct 16, 2007 9:35 AM PDT reply actions 0 recs
I don't know about Victor
We already have a great base of talent to work with and may not need any icing on this cake.
However, some guys, through their own mistakes, may end up playing themselves off the roster.
For instance, if Outlaw keeps up his lazy off-season "workout" routine, or if Sergio never learns to speak English at an adequate level to communicate on the floor with teammates.
As far as the quality defensive energy player, James Jones might be that guy, or even Taurean Green.
Time will tell, but I think the kind of player you are describing would be a very welcome addition.
by broggerboy19 on Oct 16, 2007 10:12 AM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
The more I think of Arenas
Two clutch shooters too...Roy and Arenas. What's not to like? That he's a little arrogant? Pritchard has said that once you have your core you can bring in some guys with some questions in order to push you over the top. That's maybe who he was talking about.
by jamon51 on Oct 16, 2007 1:29 PM PDT reply actions 0 recs
i'd love
With a starting lineup of 1. arenas 2. roy 3. Martell/draft pick (hoping he develops but wouldnt mind beasley here either if he can hold his head straight for a year in college) 4. aldridge 5. oden
we'd be more than solid on offense and defense
by DominicanAvenger on Oct 17, 2007 12:39 AM PDT reply actions 0 recs
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