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Around SBN: NFL Roundtable: Which Draft Pick Is Most Likely To Bust?

Missing the Point?

One of the low-simmering debates around Blazerland the last month or so involves Brandon Roy's position--specifically whether he's going to be a point guard or a shooting guard.  Clearly he has skills to match either position.  The question is, where will he fit best?

The idea of Roy at the point is intriguing.  His height is a major factor.  Much like a tall quarterback looking over his line, a 6'6" point guard would have an easier time seeing the court.  Also he'd have a ready-made mismatch most nights in the post, and given the era he came up in I don't think Coach McMillan would have objections to thowing a little old-school, turn-of-the-century point guard posting into the offense.  Roy wouldn't have to add as much bulk as a point guard as he would at the two-spot, quickness being the most valuable asset.  He's also got the unselfish personality that is required of a true point guard...something which may actually inhibit his progression as a shooting guard.  Plus, despite the skills, Roy is not cut from the hyper-athletic mold of most NBA shooting guards.  He's looking forward to a long career of getting out-muscled, out-jumped, eventually out-run, and having to use wit and guile to compensate.  He won't be a Randy Johnson-type power player, more of a Jamie Moyer.  This is certainly still valuable, but if you were convinced he could be dominant at the point that might be a better option, because he probably won't be at the two.

On the other hand, there might be some wisdom to keeping him as a shooting guard.  His passing and dribbling skills are very good...for a two-man.  If you shift him to the point his skills become average at best for the position.  Besides, having that second ball-handler, ball-mover, and vision guy on the court takes a lot of pressure off of your point guard and really opens up the floor from every position.  Sebastian Telfair had great passing skills but there was little room to display them because every other player on the court with him was an endpoint, not a conduit.  All the opponent had to do was sit on a couple of angles radiating from Bassy and he couldn't do anything but dump it off ineffectively.  Roy alleviates that situation.  Scoring is a definite strength for Roy, and we traditionalists get nervous when our point guard does more scoring than sharing.  Better put: it might be nicer for Brandon to be able to explore his scoring potential without having to also worry about running the team.  And if you say Roy is going to get out-muscled as a shooting guard you also have to say he's going to get out-quicked as a point guard.  The thing is, it's easier to add muscle than quickness.  You can compensate for lesser strength with greater brains, but it's hard to compensate for lesser agility because by the time your brain fires and your muscles respond the guy is already by you.  Also you tend to pick up fewer fouls getting overpowered than you do when the opponent is quicker than you.  Finally, and perhaps not insignificantly, shooting guard is Roy's natural position.  It's not like former shooting guards haven't assumed point duties before, but that road is pretty long.  How far in the future do we want to push Brandon's full contributions, and how much do we want to risk his development?

I think you can make arguments either way, but if we do move him to the point my question is this:  What the heck have we been doing in the draft the last few years?  First we draft Bassy.  Then when we have a shot at Chris Paul or Deron Williams we say no because we already have Bassy.  Then a year later we decide to trade Sebastian to make room for Jarrett Jack, who is supposedly the future.  Then with the draft pick we got in return for Bassy we take...another point guard?!?  (And then you've got to factor Sergio in there too.)  Would somebody explain to me why it takes three years and four first-round picks--Telfair, Jack, Roy, Sergio--to fill one roster spot?  And why filling that spot somehow included passing on two players that right now look like they're going to be the best of their generation at that position?  And what we're going to do to fill the now-gaping spot left by Roy's switch, namely shooting guard (which we've needed to address for years and haven't)?  None of those questions have to be answered if Roy remains at the two, but switching him to the point and dumping Jack sheds a whole new light on this "rebuilding" process...and it might not be a pleasant one.

--Dave (blazersub@yahoo.com)

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Roy at the point makes the most sense...
...if we have an explosive scorer, such as an Iverson (though not necessarily of that calibre) at the other guard spot--especially one who can play credible defense against the opposing 1.

A backcourt of Roy and Foye would be interesting.

It also makes more sense with better interior defense.  We've stepped back for the moment in that regard, with Prz not having a good year (maybe his nads still bother him), Zach is Zach, and Mags is a weaker defender than Theo Ratliff was.  The hope there is Aldridge, who has good defensive instincts--but needs to put on some weight and get some respsect from the officials.

I still think--and hope--that a Jack/Roy backcourt can work--and having Roy is useful when you have a Juan Dixon (or a Salim, if the recent trade rumor is believable) off the bench.  Or Roy/Rodriguez.  Having two guards who are both good passers is NEVER a bad thing.

Regarding the schizophrenic nature of the Blazers; you gotta remember one thing:  Bassy was Nash's pick, and the Blazers were high on Bassy in the summer of '05.  Many though that HE would be the Next Great Point Guard.  Not only did Bassy not thrive under McMillan; he hasn't done better under Doc Rivers.   And when Nash got canned, you'll notice that all of his picks from the 04 draft were sent packing (though the team probably wouldn't mind having VK back).  

And if Webster ever does turn into the player the Blazers hope he can, I suspect not drafting CP3 will be forgiven.

Right now, the Blazers need Brandon to play the 2; nobody else does a credible job at the position.  Maybe Webster will; Dixon's good off the bench but not a starter.  We've got more options (Jack, Sergio) at the point; and I certainly don't mind Roy assuming PG duties if Jack goes to the bench.

by EngineerScotty on Jan 8, 2007 2:57 PM PST reply actions  

I don't think...
it has to be either/or.  As I've said before, I think it is a good thing that Roy gets training at the point even if he never uses it full time.

I liken Roy to four players from the fairly recent past: Steve Smith, Grant Hill, Penny Hardaway and Scottie Pippen.

He's probably closer to Steve than the other three simply from an athletic standpoint.  But all could handle the ball for long stretches and it was a definite plus in all cases.  If they had all stuck to strictly their own respective positions, they wouldn't have been as valuable.

Here's hoping he's better than Steve, wins as much as Scottie and stays healthier than Penny and Grant.

(Incidentally, or not, these were all quality people as well.)

by ken @ Blazer's Edge on Jan 8, 2007 3:10 PM PST reply actions  

ken excellent point
my man he is another
g.hill just he's 6'6
but yes he's a young
g.hill excellent point
and anology my man...

by fatty on Jan 8, 2007 3:31 PM PST reply actions  

Roy's natural strengths
and comfort level are most suited to SG. Why mess with that? I've always seen him as a 2 who could swing to either side. Yes, in some situations he could do some SF time. His versatility is a valuable asset which should be exploited.
Jack is our point for the present and the future.
"...though you may fail...aim at something high." Henry David Thoreau

by Dr Dave on Jan 8, 2007 3:45 PM PST reply actions  

You gots to make up your mind...
either don't "mess with that" or "exploit his versatility". Which is it?

Basically, you and I said the same thing.  His strength is at SG, but his strength should be augmented.  The best way to know what the point is all about is to play it, and the best time for him to play it is now when the whole team is still learning.

by ken @ Blazer's Edge on Jan 8, 2007 3:48 PM PST up reply actions  

OK..I made up my mind..
"..don't mess with that" as in 'start' him at the 2. "Exploit his versatility" as in  use him at the 1 or 3 when it's advantageous to the team. I guess I should have read your post more carefully. It does sound similar to your sentiments.
"...though you may fail...aim at something high." Henry David Thoreau

by Dr Dave on Jan 8, 2007 5:16 PM PST up reply actions  

This is a good subject.
I wouldn't at all be surpised to see Roy end up at the point with Sergio providing the back-up minutes and Jack moving on (buying into Quicks vision). Why?  Because likely, Blazer management has Martel eventually slotted for the 2.

No doubt though that Roy could be an excellent off-guard. It's not like he doesn't have the shot.  He's still getting in condition after having that boot on for so long (which probably also explains his late game fade yesterday). I remember during pre-season, when Jason started out his Quick chat (only partially joking) with "breaking news, Brandon Roy finally missed a shot".  He's not a bad shooter.  

You know, I was trying to compare him to a previous Blazer player but came up empty.  I wasn't even really able to think of another current or former NBA guy to liken him to.  I think today Ken and Fatty came kind of close maybe with Grant Hill. I wouldn't compare him with Steve Smith though as Ken does.  Anybody think of anyone else?      

by TwoDeep on Jan 8, 2007 4:44 PM PST reply actions  

I wouldn't compare him to Steve Smith

Smith was an outside shooter par excellence, and a fine passer--but not much of a rebounder or defender.

Roy's main weakness is his outside shot; but he's already shown he can guard people and board.

Both are excellent passers.

Grant Hill is probably a good compare.  Let's hope Roy has better knees.

by EngineerScotty on Jan 8, 2007 4:57 PM PST up reply actions  

On further thought...

...I would hope that if management has that vision, they would at least wait until Martell demonstrates he can PLAY the 2 adequately before doing that.

Jack has shown he can play at the level of an average NBA point guard.  While I don't see him blossoming into an All-Star; I do see him moving into the top 10 or 12 with more experience.  

The wild card is still Sergio.  

by EngineerScotty on Jan 8, 2007 5:00 PM PST up reply actions  

Manu
What about a more controlled Ginobili?  
He starts at the two and doesn't play a lot of point, but he does handle the ball late in games or in situations where the Spurs want to try to get one of their 3Pt shooters set up off of screens.  They both can get to the hoop, create their own shots, and shoot consistently out of a set offense.

by tssbro on Jan 8, 2007 7:06 PM PST reply actions  

I heard the same thing
My friend ever mentioned Ginobili when we discussed this topic, even though I personally dislike this comparison.

by spring610 on Jan 8, 2007 9:08 PM PST up reply actions  

Why?
Is the comparison bad or do you dislike Ginobili?

by tssbro on Jan 8, 2007 9:45 PM PST up reply actions  

offense/defense
Im figuring that were talking about taking the ball up the court.  I think Brandon is best used guarding the 2 spot (Dwayne, Ray Allen, Michael Redd, Manu)
If we need him to take the ball up court, fine.
If you watch Miami, many times Jason Williams or Gary Payton will bring the ball up and then get it to the playmaker (Wade).
This is where I see Roy.
The Idea that being 6'6" somehow makes you see the floor better is rediculous.
I think Steve Nash does a fine job seeing the floor at 6-2.
B.Roy is not Magic Johnson.
His greatest attribute is his ability to fill the stat sheet.
He does a little of everything. I think he will thrive in a position to concentrate on whatever is needed on any given night.
It may be guarding the opponents best player with all of his energy,
or setting the offense, or getting the ball to the hot player where he likes it.
We need this kind of headsy player and it doesnt matter where.
Point? sure. 2, yes. 3, uh-huh.
He'll should play all of these positions.
I dont think there is any reason to trade Jack, thats ludicrous.
We need some bulldogs in there. Jack is that.
Sergio should get run too. If they are having trouble getting the ball up court, then let Roy do it.

by DropstepJ on Jan 8, 2007 8:00 PM PST reply actions  

The argument
isn't that a shorter guy can't see the floor, rather that being taller does give you an advantage in line of sight.

--Dave

by Dave on Jan 8, 2007 9:17 PM PST up reply actions  

Yeah
Dave, I know what your saying. It makes sense.
I just believe that court vision is not a product of sight lines.
Its a product of being able to process information through your peripheral vision. I find that I defend better when I let my focus down and try to see panoramically. Its so much easier to really see the movement of the other 9 players.

by DropstepJ on Jan 8, 2007 10:23 PM PST up reply actions  

I like JJ very much
I love his attitude and I've seen his improvement this season. Personally I don't want him to leave at all. But I don't think it's ludicrous to trade this guy.

Actually, it is because he has proven himself to be a very solid player, so he might draw other teams' attention and provide Blazers a favorable deal to make the trade possible.

Even though I don't want JJ to leave, I still think trade is possible.

by spring610 on Jan 8, 2007 9:23 PM PST up reply actions  

Your right
Its always good to keep your options open.
I do like JJ but I might love the player we could get for him.
I was more commenting on the reasoning behind shipping him (Roy seen as our "Point gueard of the future")

by DropstepJ on Jan 8, 2007 10:16 PM PST up reply actions  

Looking down.
I don't know Dropstep if the thought that a player is better able to see the floor  at 6'6" is ridiculous?  You're only 6'3" (if I remember correctly) so you don't know what the view is like from up there :) :).

by TwoDeep on Jan 8, 2007 10:18 PM PST up reply actions  

Read my comment to Dave above
I think It explains it.
Nice memory by the way.
Its funny because in the last year Ive measured myself twice and I am now officialy 6-4.
I havent grown in 15 years but this year I grew taller and gained 10 pounds. (32 years old)
subsequently, Im getting more rebounds and my back to the basket game is at its peak.
Have you heard of this?

by DropstepJ on Jan 8, 2007 10:27 PM PST up reply actions  

Idea
Maybe its the shoes. Its gotta be the shoes.

by tssbro on Jan 8, 2007 11:49 PM PST up reply actions  

Leave him at the 2
     I like what I see with Roy better when he is not bringing the ball up the court.  I would not compare him to AI, but he is a scorer who could play point guard.  The year that Philly went to the finals AI was excellent.  At the time a lot of the credit was due to Snow bringing the ball up the court and allowing AI to worry about filling it up.  JJ is a step up from Snow and Roy can't fill it up like AI, but, like AI, I find Roy to be more valuable off the ball.
     Also, I have liked the way that the offense has run with two ball handlers in there as well.  There was some nice stretches for the Sergio/Jack tandem, and Roy's two excellent 1st quarters have come with JJ in the game.  Like Dave, I also cringe a little when the PG is a score first guy.  JJ is willing to distribute, and I also think that he will get better because he has a good work ethic.  
       I am a little worried that the team/fans are starting to think that Roy can do anything and everything.  Hes good, real good, but he is going to need a good complimenting cast to do anything worthwhile to the fans (think Micheal Redd, or Joe Johnson).  Lay off the kid a little, he is still young.  

by TearsforDuckworth on Jan 8, 2007 8:54 PM PST reply actions  

Here's the one potential problem
I see with the Jack/Roy thing.  What if they're BOTH really that amazing back-up combo guard that it would be so nice to have?  Sometimes that worries me, and if that's true then it would make sense to trade one of them.

--Dave

by Dave on Jan 8, 2007 10:40 PM PST reply actions  

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