Sorry to leave you with questions the last couple days instead of well thought-out, impeccably-constructed hoo-hah, but I've been on some very long road trips which have left my energy supply almost dry.  The hoo-hah will have to wait for the weekend.

HOWEVER, fear not!  As I was driving today I was thinking that the key ingredient to any championship team, let alone repeat championship team, is defense.  Good "D" is one of the hardest things to quantify statistically.  Like pornography, you just know it when you see it.  A lot of it depends on team effort and commitment, which gives us an immediate leg up as this team has been constructed to feature those exact qualities.  You still have to have some ability/talent however, and therein lies today's discussion.

A fool with cataracts in one eye and a pickle stuck in the other could look at this team and tell that our strongest defensive position is center.  Joel Przybilla is a good defender.  Greg Oden has the potential to be a great one.  As we said a couple days ago, one excellent big-man defender can bolster your entire lineup.  But that doesn't change the fact that outside of the center position, our defensive credentials are...somewhat spotty.

Given that, here are the questions at hand:

1.  After the two big men, who's the best defender on this team?  If you prefer to pick one frontcourt and one backcourt defender to highlight that's fine too.

2.  Which player currently on the squad has the best chance to develop into a good defender and why?

3.  Outside of the center position, which position is going to be the most critical to our defensive success in the coming years?  Where do we need a great defender to balance the pivot men?

4.  How good do you see us being defensively as we inch into our prime years?

I am curious to hear your responses.

--Dave 

Check this out.  ESPN's basketball braintrust debate: Which team will join the West elite?

Who can bend the furthest backwards in praise of the Blazers?  The early, smart money in these situations is normally on our BlogFather Henry Abbott (by default) but he's got strong challenges on all flanks from Adande, Hollinger, and Stein. 

This one is too close to call. Photo finish really.

And silly Sheridan.... still hoping for that breakout season from Yao Ming.   How many seasons does an athlete need to break down in a row before the "They'll be back next year!"  argument goes into the dumpster rather than the recycling bin.  Maybe this was simply his effort to "go green?"

Portland will have a better record next year than Houston. 

Book that.

There are two positions on this team that people almost universally acclaim as unsettled.  Point Guard has evoked a ton of visceral discussion in the past year compared to the other: small foward.  It seems clear that this will be one of the crucial decisions to be made in the next year and a half.

The candidates so far:

Travis Outlaw:  A gifted leaper and explosive scorer who is better at getting his own shot than anyone on the team outside of Brandon Roy himself.  He's a career 44% shooter who has recently developed a couple semi-consistent moves and range out to the three-point arc.  His rebounding would be good for a small foward.  His help defense can be good at times but his individual defense and understanding of the game are still raw.  Without the ball in his hands and a green light he's far less effective.  There's some question whether he's a power foward or small foward but he shows the most promise of any of the candidates and his stats have generally increased season-by-season.

Martell Webster:  A good three-point shooter with athleticism.  He's been working on improving his defense, rebounding, and overall shooting with some success.  He tallied career highs in shooting and three-point shooting this year but his career percentage is low for a shooter.  He could have a ton of upside.  He has trouble creating off the dribble and this may never be a strength.  When plays are run for him he's often deadly but when he has to improvise he struggles.

James Jones:  A veteran three-point specialist who spreads a defense with the mere rumor of his presence.  His distance shooting is unparalleled on the team (and nearly in the league).  He's also smart and experienced enough to be in the right place at the right time.  He knows how to get his shots.  He has yet to produce consistently in a full NBA season.  He lacks the athletic prowess of the other two.  When he's not hitting threes his intimidation factor goes way down but he is less susceptable to bottoming out than the other two are.  He also has far less upside.

Somebody Else On the Team:  Do Brandon Roy or Rudy Fernandez have the ability, athleticism, size, and desire to play here?  Would that be better for the team in the long run?

Somebody Else Entirely:  Have we yet to sign our starting small foward?  Is some of that cap room in 2009 earmarked for a free agent at this position?  If so, whom?  Or...are we drafting our small foward of the future with our (hopefully) final lottery pick for a while?  Again...whom?

Here are the questions:

1.  Which one of these options will be our starting small forward of the future?

2.  What happens to the remaining options already on our team?  Will they be back-ups or play at other positions?  Will they be cut or traded?

3.  What qualities are we looking for in a small forward exactly?  Again, people seem to have pretty definite opinions about the kind of point guard we need.  Is there a general consensus about small forward as well?

Have at it.

--Dave

Interesting news from our Finnish sports-writing friend:

Petteri Koponen wins the Finnish MVP award

It's official: Finnish League team captains and head coaches have selected Honka Playboys' Petteri Koponen as the Most Valuable Player in the League. In 36 regular season games, Koponen averaged 19 points, 3,9 assists, 3,6 rebounds and 1,8 steals a game while shooting his 2pt field goals 56,4%, 3pt field goals 42,6% and free throws 78,6%.

In playoffs, Koponen played only six full games before he was sidelined for four games because of broken thumb. Koponen's seventh playoff game was the deciding game of the finals series. Koponen entered the game with 8:30 remaining and scored one point and delivered two assists. His playoff averages were 15,6 points, 4,7 assists, 2,6 rebounds and 2 steals a game (the stat line notably affected by that finals game 4 cameo). Koponen shot in the playoffs even better than during regular season: 2pt fg 57,6%, 3pt fg 47,6%. His free throws dropped a bit to 73,3%.

Despite just turning 20, Koponen isn't the youngest all time winner of the Finnish league MVP award. The youngest winner ever is Finnish national team starting point guard Teemu Rannikko (6-2", 1980). Rannikko won the award in 1999 as an 18-year old. Rannikko is currently the sixth man of Russian powerhouse Khimky, playing alongside former NBA players Daniel Ewing, Maciej Lampe and Pat Burke. Last year Rannikko was the starting point guard of Euroleague team Olimpia Ljubljana and averaged 14,6 points and 3,3 assists a game in Euroleague competition.

The Finnish league MVP vote was very tight this year. Koponen's teammate, Finnish national team forward Jukka Matinen (6-7", 1978) lost the MVP award with just one vote difference. Matinen averaged 17,7 points and 4,5 rebounds a game while draining 53,8% of 2pt shots, 46,3% of 3pt shots and 87,3% of free throws. Matinen has also won the German Bundesleague championship with Frankfurt Skyliners.

Here's a couple of minutes of video footage from Finnish finals game 4 including glimpses of Petteri:

 

 

Click Here

--Dave (blazersub@yahoo.com)

I realize you didn't get much from me in the way of season recap.  But what can I say? In my defense, I don't have any children and therefore can't take any baby pictures.

While I work on that shortcoming, check out the You Be The GM series on the Oregonlive Blazers Blog to read my thoughts on the job that Coach Nate McMillan did this year.  Note: all of the Blazers players have been voted on so you can also compare your thoughts to how the rest of the city voted.

-- Ben (benjamin.golliver@gmail.com)

The one guy we haven’t talked about in our Player-by-Player assessment of the team is, of course, Greg Oden.  It wasn’t appropriate to include him in the season recap but since we’re now transitioning properly into summer and anticipating the season to come it’s time to chat about his impact.  Long story short…it’s going to be significant.

Oden’s calling card to this point in his career has been his defense, but he’ll also make a huge difference in the Blazers’ offense.  While Oden’s post game isn’t polished yet (and will likely take a while to become NBA-ready) his sheer athleticism makes him a legitimate threat already.  One of the reasons we had some difficulty with decision-making and attacking in the halfcourt offense this year was that opponents basically cheated off of the post.  I love Joel Przybilla and what he did for us this year.  We would not have been nearly the same team without him.  But his presence in the offense allowed the defense considerable leeway to pinch and gamble against our better scorers.  Many of our sets were just aching for somebody in the middle to catch and score.  Joel wasn’t that man.  He has trouble catching passes with the slightest imperfections.  If he does catch the ball he has trouble doing anything productive with it in any kind of traffic.  He doesn’t score or pass naturally.  Even when he finds himself free Joel is unable to finish above the rim unless he’s already cutting towards the basket.  Count the number of times Joel got passed to and couldn’t finish, then add all of the times his teammates looked the other direction.  That ends up being a lot of possessions.  All of that goes away with Oden on the floor.  He has good, big hands that are only going to get better with practice.  One of his best qualities is his fluidity.  Watching him with the ball is like watching a much smaller man.  Plus he’s huge and he’s not going to get bumped off of his line easily.  He already has the rudiments of passing down and he’s showed some court vision last summer…more than some rookies I’ve seen anyway.  I anticipate he’ll be at least a competent passer if not a downright good one.  And Greg doesn’t have any trouble finishing above the rim.  As a matter of fact he can get his forearms above the cylinder on a flat-footed jump and darn near get his elbows up there with a step and a half.  Even if he doesn’t end up scoring big numbers at first he’s going to draw attention which will immediately create more open shots for everyone else.  One of the key flaws in the Blazer offense this year was spending a bunch of time to create a mediocre shot.  If the defense was dedicated we had trouble getting free.  Once Oden gets rolling offensively it’s hard to see how we’re not going to get someone free.  And with our new-found perimeter prowess that’s liable to be scary for the opposition.

Now let’s move to Oden’s strength…the defense.  We played a style conducive to holding the opponent to a low percentage this year.  Basically we forfeited aggressive attacking in favor of staying between the man and the basket.  We suffered when good scorers figured out that we weren’t really going to challenge them on their moves, shadowing them instead.  We suffered during those times when even playing the percentages couldn’t keep them out of the lane.  We suffered continuously on the boards. 

Greg Oden isn’t a one-man cure-all for these issues.  However teams like San Antonio (Tim Duncan) and New Orleans (Tyson Chandler) show us that one big man can have a disproportionate effect on the defense.  Look at that Hornets defense.  Name the great defenders outside of Chandler.  Peja Stojakovic?  Mo Pete?  These guys were severe defensive liabilities elsewhere.  CP3’s defensive claim to fame is getting a whole bunch of steals.  But what gives him the confidence to go for those steals?  Tyson Chandler is the man.  Take him off of that team and they’re good, but not running deep into the playoffs.  Oden is going to have a similar effect on the Blazers.  He’s going to allow decent defenders to look good and cover up for some of the poorer defenders.  He’s going to allow our perimeter guys to take more chances, knowing that their backs are covered.  He’s going to be able to rotate quicker than Joel with all of that defensive ability.  He may not give us more rebounds per minute than Joel, but he’s going to give us a rebounder when Joel isn’t on the court--something sorely lacking this season.  Everybody outside gets to tighten up and go harder.  Everybody inside has another player on the court to distract the opposition on the boards.  This is going to be a good deal for everyone.

Oden will also eventually affect our running game positively.  As we’ve said for the better part of a year now, Lamarcus and Travis are going to be able to fly more when Greg is rebounding.  He’s going to make the opponent take longer shots more often, leading to long rebounds and breaks.  His passing ability will also help him on the outlet…something we haven’t seen around here since Sabonis.

Is all of this going to happen immediately?  Of course not.  He’s going to need time to adjust.  But you’re going to see some of these things--at least flashes of them--the minute he steps on the court.  We ought to get a clear vision of the future in his first season.  As for the rest…we’re young and we have plenty of time.  I read comments about Greg not transforming the team completely in his first year and dealing with foul trouble and all of that, as if that were a negative.  (By the way, he’ll also have to deal with the physical and mental pounding he’s going to take with that big bullseye on his back, plus life on the road.  Those are going to be as great of a challenge as the foul issue.)  I tend to look at all of that and go, “So?”  It’s a little like getting the red Lamborghini of your dreams and someone saying, “Well, you’re going to have to drive it in low gear until you get out of the dealership parking lot.”  And this is a problem...how?  After you make that right turn onto the street the freeway beckons and it’s pretty long.  Crank up the bass, put the key in the ignition, and let’s get driving!  Hola chicas!  Check us out!

It’s going to be one heck of a trip.

--Dave (blazersub@yahoo.com)

In my continuing quest to recognize the brilliance of Terry Porter, I asked Brian Hendrickson of the Vancouver Columbian for his thoughts on the greatest point guard in Blazers history.  Here's what Mr. Hendrickson had to say.

Many thanks to Mr. Hendrickson.  Now it's your turn.

Haven't yet emailed me your memories of TP?  Do it now.

-- Ben (benjamin.golliver@gmail.com)

Our sports-writer from Finland sends this recap of the Honka Playboy season and an assessment of Petteri Koponen's progress and prospects:

Honka Playboys wins Finnish championship, injured Koponen plays the last quarter of deciding Game 4

 

Portland's Finnish NBA prospect went down with a broken thumb in Finnish league semifinals, but that didn't Koponen's Honka Playboys in game 4 of the semifinals. Honka thumped FIBA EuroCup team Lappeenranta out of its way easily with a deciding 81-61 victory and proceeded to the Finnish League finals against Kouvolan Kouvot, the best defensive team in the league and winners of 18 out of last 19 games.

 

Many observers thought Honka would be in trouble without Koponen (playoff averages 19 points, 6 assists), because the team didn't have a true point guard in the roster. Former High Point Panther, 6-1" Akeem Scott had to take the point guard duties, although he had mostly played off-guard after joining Honka. The reserves didn't help that much either, because 6-4" Anselmi Vanjoki hadn't yet played a minute in the league and 6-2" Sasu Salin was 16 years old and just played his first year in the league.

 

Kouvot made things hard for Honka with their rottweiller defence in the finals. But throughout the series, Honka had notable size and experience advantage. Akeem Scott's playmaking wasn't a thing of beauty, but he had the intangibles to get the job done. He broke down Kouvot defence in games 2 and 4 with his streetball touch, taking it to the hole strong and even shooting effectively from outside.

 

Honka opened the series winning game one 79-71 (Kimmo Muurinen 22/7, Ben Perkins 19/4, Matthew Williams 14/4, Akeem Scott 12/1/7 assists) after a hard-fought battle. Kouvot was just three points behind when Matt Williams netted a three-pointer, which Kouvot never recovered from.

 

Back in Espoo, Honka was able to snatch a 70-68 win (Akeem Scott 20/1, Jukka Matinen 20/4, Matthew Williams 15/5, Kimmo Muurinen 13/8) with Akeem Scott scoring Honka's last seven points in less than two minutes. Kouvot opened the game with an 18-4-lead, with only national team sharpshooter Jukka Matinen being able to fight back. Ultimately, Honka was more experienced and Scott had a hot hand in the end.

 

In game 3, Kouvot took 49-30 lead in front of noisy home crowd. Honka turned on their defensive intensity and climbed back, taking a 65-66 lead with Kimmo Muurinen's 3pt shot with less than ten seconds to go. Kouvot forward Corey Smith scored on a layup, putting Kouvot up 67-66, and just two seconds later, Akeem Scott turned the ball over after a traveling call. (Akeem Scott 19/1/7 turnovers, Ben Perkins 18/3, Kimmo Muurinen 15/9).

 

Things looked bad for Honka in the fourth quarter of game 4, when Akeem Scott had his fourth foul with 8:30 to go. Honka coach Mihailo Pavicevic turned to Petteri Koponen, asked: "Are you ready?", and entered the young point guard, who had been sidelined with broken thumb for more than two weeks. Koponen struggled in defence against Kouvot point guard Wayne Bernard, but was able to bring stability to Honka offence and dished out two assists in the last 8:30 of the game. Koponen also gave a valuable breather to Akeem Scott, who scored 11 out of Honka's last 13 points and helped Honka climb from 59-65 score to 72-71 win. (Akeem Scott 36/3, Matthew Williams 15/11).

 

After championship festivities, Koponen told he'll be practicing both individually and with the team and get his thumb healthy before he heads to the States in June.

 

Here are some quotes:

"I have mostly been glued to the bench because of this injury, but I didn't hesitate when coach wanted to insert me in the fourth quarter. My legs felt like lead and Wayne Bernard drove by me in every possible situation, but thankfully we found good rhythm in offence and got the job done."

-Petteri Koponen

 

"This game puts end to an era. It has been four years now that Petteri Koponen moved from his junior team to Honka Playboys and under my coaching. He has become exactly the player I have expected him to be. He is a great person, a great role model for young people and he has the possibility to become a great player one day."

-Coach Mihailo Pavicevic

We conclude our recap of this year’s team with a look at the front office.  Since we already talked about Coach McMillan during our initial season review a couple weeks ago I’m going to define “front office” as coaching staff, basketball staff, and administrative staff all lumped together.  By any measure all of these folks did a fantastic job this year.

Going back to last summer a wish-list of goals and priorities for the season might have looked something like this:

 --Continue developing Brandon Roy and Lamarcus Aldridge as leaders and stars.

 --Develop some of our other younger players and get some idea of who might stick.

--Don’t let the Oden injury submarine your season…win some games anyway.

--Continue developing the new Blazer culture and community relations.

--Make room for the cultural leaders to become team leaders as well.

--Improve the offense and defense.

--Acquire or develop some perimeter shooting.

--Figure out how to clear cap space to enable us to fill in missing pieces.

--Sell some tickets.

These goals range from the obvious (developing the stars) to the near-unimaginable (cap space, for one).  Up and down the list the team managed almost all of them.  You could quibble about the offensive development some.  We did see better ball movement but we also saw far too many jumpers.  I think you could also argue that as long as the Comcast deal prevents Oregonians from seeing the team on a regular basis there’s a gap in community relations.  But those pale in comparison to the rabbits the coaches and office personnel were able to pull out of their hats: 

--Brandon Roy was an All-Star in his second season and Lamarcus Aldridge has opposing teams drooling. 

--We saw more advancement and consistency from Martell Webster and Travis Outlaw this year than we have their whole careers. 

--The love affair between fans, media, and the team continues to grow.  And this without Kevin Pritchard having to appear every second day to talk up the team.  Various media outlets and fans themselves are starting to promote the team, which is the key to success in Portland.

--Our defense was markedly improved. 

--Our perimeter shooting was better this year than it’s been in a decade.  We got James Jones for a trade exception.  Steve Blake had an incredible year from distance.  All of a sudden our greatest offensive weakness is one of our strengths.

--Ticket sales are up and continue to rise.

Then you get the big-ripple items:

--The trade of Zach Randolph opened up this team on and off the court.  Even with the near-mandate to let him go, giving up your leading scorer is a courageous move.  It paid off big-time.

--The Randolph trade also opened up cap possibilities.  But the contract of Darius Miles was a fly in the ointment.  The fact that they managed to wriggle out of it goes down as a near-miracle.

--We won FORTY-ONE games!  It’s in the nature of fans to inflate expectations for their own team.  This shouldn’t blind us to the fact that there’s no way 41-41 should have happened.  This team was led by two second-year players.  The supporting cast was nearly as young and would not have been deemed strong or reliable by NBA standards.  These were kids out there.  The Western Conference was as tough as your grandma’s behind.  With Oden’s injury this team had every reason to say, “Don’t hold us responsible for what happens this year.  The real stuff comes later.”  The national pundits who predicted a low-20’s winning total didn’t know the Blazers.  (There’s a surprise, huh?)  But most reasonable people would have told you anywhere north of 32 wins would have been decent.  We obliterated that mark.  In combination with everything else that made this one heck of a year.

I’m hard-pressed to think of one facet of the administration who shouldn’t be proud of this season, from the scouts to the GM to the coaches to the ticket and media relations staff.  If you hadn’t seen such a pronounced turn-around in the last two years you’d be tempted to call this season “charmed”.  The truth is they’re probably just that good.  And right now they’re hitting on all cylinders. 

Nicely done, folks.

Verdict:

Here’s what it feels like to be a Blazer fan right now.  What more can you say?

Fan Feeling

--Dave (blazersub@yahoo.com)

I don't really have any stats or brilliant analysis here, but I thought I'd leave a post open in case you wanted to comment on the season or future of Raef LaFrentz, Von Wafer, or Josh McRoberts.

 --Dave (blazersub@yahoo.com)