According to Henry Abbott of TrueHoop, as first reported on ESPN's SportsCenter, the Portland Trail Blazers have reached an agreement in principle with free agent forward Hedo Turkoglu.  The terms of the deal have not been finalized.

The rumored structure according to multiple sources is that the Blazers' offer will approach the 5 years and $50 million previously reported.

Via Google Chat, Henry Abott writes...

There are a lot of players Portland could have offered that money to. But there are not a lot who can both shoot and create for other shooters. When you get that in a player who is also extremely long, comfortable in crunch time, and playoff-tested ... it makes a lot of sense.    

The earliest the deal can be announced is Wednesday, July 8. 

Update (11:44AM): Here's the ESPN link.

Although a verbal commitment may be announced sooner, the terms of the contract cannot be finalized until Wednesday, after the NBA informs teams what next year's salary cap will be.    

Update (12:08PM): Ken Berger has confirmed this report.

Update (12:31PM): On ESPN INSIDER, John Hollinger writes...

At first, it makes no sense. Why would the Portland Trail Blazers pay Hedo Turkoglu $50 million?

Thanks to his position as a key ballhandler on a conference champion, Turkoglu has become one of the league's most overrated players: a 30-year-old forward who has had league-average PER numbers the past three seasons. Clearly, he isn't worth $50 million, which is the rumored price, and in a couple of years he might not be worth half of $50 million.

Yet in a roundabout way, it makes a lot of sense for Portland to offer him $50 million.    

Update (1:30PM): Henry Abbott went on 95.5FM The Game to discuss the Hedo Turkoglu signing. I tried to transcribe as carefully as I could in real time... here's some of what he said...

Initial thoughts

It's an interesting move... you never love free agency because you take a whole bunch of money and are choosing from a limited menu... given their options, it makes all kinds of sense to me... it makes a ton of sense to me... you're already spreading the floor with shooters... now Turkoglu can be a second option to take some pressure off Brandon Roy... He has wanted 5 years and 50 million dollars... Portland has agreed to get there or darn close to there..

Did they overpay?

Probably a little.. but that's the way free agency works... a much poorer value is to have 9 million under the cap and not get somebody... especially when he's 35 it will really look like they are overpaying...

Who else were they looking at?

The Blazers really don't take on any players that can't shoot... that limits their options... as long as that's the case you're choosing from a very limited menu...

What do they want from Hedo?

You've got to be a teammate, you've got to be a winner, you've got to be a shooter... almost alone among NBA players that you can plug into the Blazers team and run the same things they've been running and just get more efficient scoring.

Will this change the team's approach?

I wonder if maybe having a 30 year old guy who has been deep in the playoffs might inspire Nate to loosen the reigns a little bit on the fast break.

95.5's online stream cut to commercials during that portion of the interview. 

Update (1:30PM): Jason Quick offers this confirmation...

The 6-foot-10 small forward, one of the top commodities in this year's free agent market, arrived in Portland on Thursday afternoon and reached tentative agreement on a five-year, $50 million deal shortly before noon today.    

Turkoglu and his agent, Lon Babby, are expected to be at the team's practice facility around 2 p.m., for a meeting during which details and formalities will be ironed out.

...

Kevin Pritchard intimated that he has at least one more move ahead this summer, which figures to involve one of the Blazers three returning small forwards - Travis Outlaw ($3.6 million this season), Martell Webster ($4.3 million) or second-year player Nicolas Batum ($1.2 million).

Update (1:45PM): Ric Bucher on ESPN News just said... 

They do not have an agreement. There is a deal, 5 years and 52 million that is apparently on the table. I've been told by a couple of sources it's not done yet. It's not a matter of fit. It's a matter of going to Portland, quite honestly. I know his wife is very interested in going to Toronto. They right now are sitting back to see what happens. I would say Turkoglu is either going to leave Portland and have a deal done or closing the door on that situation and moving forward with Toronto. I was told it was very close this morning but the fact that we don't have anything concrete at this point suggests that there's still some mulling being done on the part of Turkoglu.

What?

Update (2:13PM): ESPN's original report on the agreement in principle remains up on ESPN.com.    

Update (2:24PM): Henry Abott offers his take on Hedo-to-Portland by citing this section of Hollinger's analysis...

Portland's approach makes sense even if the dollars seem excessive at first glance. Yes, they're overpaying Hedo Turkoglu, and given his age it's possible they'll end up eating the last two years of the contract. But the way cap space works is that a team might get only one shot at using it, and must take advantage by making the best, strongest move it can for the best fit available.

Turkoglu for $50 million is an imperfect solution, certainly, but it's a far better one than squandering the space by waiting, or by paying similar money to jam a square peg into a round hole. And as Turkoglu's soon-to-be-former teammates in Orlando showed last month, even in the current economic situation overpaying for a part that fits can work out awfully well.

Update (2:56PM): Jason Quick re-writes his lede...

Despite published reports to the contrary, Hedo Turkoglu has not reached an agreement with the Trail Blazers, a team source announced at 2:20 p.m. Friday.     

-- Ben (benjamin.golliver@gmail.com)

10:42AM: ESPN Sportscenter's report: "Hedo Turkoglu, according to ESPN The Magazine's Ric Bucher, he and the Trail Blazers have been meeting and Hedo Turkoglu is still in Portland where the two sides are hammering out a deal." 

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11:17AM: Michael Grange of The Globe and Mail is reporting the Raptors are close to signing Shawn Marion to a 4 year and $34 million deal.  This would leave the Blazers as Hedo's only serious suitor. 

I think signing Marion, adding the likes of Kleiza and Delfino and maybe finding a way to keep Parker (long-shot; Real Madrid is coming hard) is the most direct route to 45+ wins. I'd like to see them find a really solid water-bug type as a back-up point guard too, but I don't think the money is going to line up.

But at some point Marion's going to have realize that the market really has shifted in a very short amount of time. If I'm him I take the Raptors money and be glad of it.

Doesn't sound like Hedo is in the cards for Toronto.  Hopefully, from the Blazers standpoint, this helps deflate Hedo's asking price a little bit.

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I am surprised but not shocked to wake up this morning and not find a report that KP sealed the deal with Hedo last night.  Are we in store for another quiet day of non-news?  Let's hope not. 

Image via playerwives.com.

Ken Berger had this report late last night...

While the Portland Trail Blazers hosted Hedo Turkoglu for an elaborate free-agent visit Thursday, the team that could spoil the party was still plotting.

As of early Friday, the Toronto Raptors had yet to decide whether to trump the Blazers with an offer for the 30-year-old forward. Portland is offering a five-year deal for approximately $50 million. Toronto, which is believed to be the preferred choice of Turkoglu's wife, could beat that by about $800,000 per year once it clears cap space through trades or by renouncing its rights to free agents Shawn Marion, Anthony Parker, and Carlos Delfino.    

Chris Broussard of ESPN sums up Toronto's situation perfectly...

It may seem like the Raptors are mere spectators in this free-agent circus, but they're quietly active behind the scenes. The team has had exploratory talks with several free agents, though they have yet to offer a contract to anyone. 

...

Toronto has had similar talks (for different amounts of money) with several other players, including Linas Kleiza, David Lee and Hedo Turkoglu. Several league execs believe Turkoglu prefers to play in Toronto (because of its international character) instead of Portland, but it's not clear whether the Raptors will make an offer.

By renouncing Shawn Marion, Anthony Parker and Carlos Delfino and waiving Quincy Douby, the Raptors could clear enough cap room to offer Turkoglu $56.5 million over five years. But that would force the Raptors to fill out their roster with minimum-salaried players, and they're worried about not having enough depth. So at present, they're leaning toward re-signing Marion and Delfino.

Once the Blazers make an offer to Turkoglu, the Raptors will decide whether to try and outbid them.

Brian Schmitz of the Orlando Sentinel talks with Orlando GM Otis Smith...

As far as Turkoglu is concerned, he is being given the full-court press by the Trail Blazers and visited Portland on Thursday. Reports say that the Blazers could offer Turk a five-year, $50-million contract. The Toronto Raptors are also said to be in play for Turkoglu, 30, a versatile small forward who played the past five seasons in Orlando.

Smith said the it would be "a long-shot to get something done" with Turkoglu, but added that he had spoken with Lon Babby, Turkoglu's agent, and they agreed to talk before Turkoglu accepted a contract proposal with any team.

"We had a conversation with Lon about where we would go when he comes back," Smith said. "We'll see if it makes more sense to us. We like Turk, there's no question about that. But we've said that it was a long-shot to get something done."    

Wendell Maxey writes...

Sounds like a return flight to Orlando may not be in the works - at least not until Saturday.

Until then, the Blazers plan on showing and telling Turkoglu millions of reasons why he should sign with the Blazers this offseason: 5 years for $50 million to be exact. Toronto is reportedly also interested in Hedo and should be able to offer him more financially. But the Blazers - who finished with 54 wins last season and made the playoffs - are in a better position to win right now, and while money will eventually determine the outcome of Turkoglu's destination, every player wants the chance to play for a winner.    

...

Turkoglu said the sooner he can finalize a deal, the better it would be for him and his offseason preparation. And with guys like Ben Gordon (5 years, $55 million with Detroit), Artest (5 years, $33 million with the Lakers), Ariza (5 years, $33 million with Houston) already having handshake deals with their new respective teams, Hedo shouldn't be far behind with the Blazers expected to make their move in the coming days.

More Wendell Maxey on life after Hedo..

Even though Portland is basically bidding against themselves at this point, it appears this thing is already a done deal. Just need to extend an offer, agree on an amount and draw up the contracts (well, and wait until July 8 to make if official). Everything else is for the camera.

Once Hedo is locked-up though, where then do the Blazers turn their attention?

Dwight Jaynes writes...

This is a player who was a critical piece on a team that won the Eastern Conference championship. He was wanted back. He would have been paid well to come back. He was valued by his coaches and employed perfectly within the team's system to maximize his own talents. He was appreciated by fans and teammates alike and, in fact, had just gone through a long, long playoff march with those teammates. That team still has a lot of upside - and, in fact, he was part of building something special in Orlando.

But he has chosen to leave. For what? Really, I don't think you can say it's anything but money

Coup from Rip City Project writes...

Trevor Ariza will sign with the Houston Rockets, essentially completing the non-trade trade of Ron Artest-for-Ariza. That's one less small forward for Portland to worry about in their pursuit of Turkoglu, but it also might ramp up the competition from Toronto if they should desire.    

Mike Barrett steps up the sell job...

Odds are, Turkoglu is going to be wearing a Trail Blazers jersey next season. Don't tell KP's team that yet, as for them the selling will go on until Saturday. But, this is starting to look like it's going to be just a matter of time.

...

 Turkoglu is the best option available. As we saw in the playoffs, this team needs not only a veteran presence, but needs a third scorer. It needs someone who can create their own shot, creative mismatches, handle the ball on the perimeter, and shoot with range. Mostly though, it needs another player who makes his teammates better.
Plain and simple, Turkoglu would make Greg Oden better. He'd take pressure off Brandon Roy, and his offense would result in more quality looks for LaMarcus Aldridge.    

...

If you're looking for some big announcement from the Blazers on this you'll have to wait a few days, even if everything works out. Any word on an agreement being reached has to come from the player's side, until July 8th. 

John Canzano's twitter..

Bumped into Hedo last night downtown PDX... he looks/feels right at home. If we get word it will have to come from Turkoglu's camp.    

Wikipedia scooped everyone! Click to enlarge image.

Michael Grange of the Globe and Mail writes...

(The floor for Turkoglu and Lee is a five-year deal starting at $10-million a season, while Ariza is hoping for something in the $8-million range as he tries to capitalize on his strong play during the NBA final.)

If they're going to get the money they want, their representatives need some competition for their services. That would explain the smoke signals that for the right money, all three would make their way north to Toronto. That in itself is a triumph of sorts, indicating that even though the Raptors struggled last season, their approach on and off the floor has gained traction across the league. They had a bad year, sure, but it's not a bad organization.

As always, drop links in the comments.

-- Ben (benjamin.golliver@gmail.com)

I've been talking with the folks over at The Dream Shake since this morning.  They're on to an idea that before recent events seemed near-unthinkable.  They're pondering shopping Shane Battier.  Here's what's changed (my interpretation, not theirs):

1.  Yao Ming is out indefinitely.  Tracy McGrady is eternally questionable and maybe on his way out of town.  That's a ton of scoring power out the window...the two main pillars of the franchise entering the year.  Battier is an amazing complementary player, perfect alongside those guys.  If they're gone Houston needs more firepower.  All of a sudden Battier looks like a nice piece who doesn't fit anymore, kind of like your beautiful sandcastle after the tide has come in.  It's under that flood somewhere but you're not getting much use out of it anymore.

2.  Just today, as reported below, Ron Artest committed to the L*kers while Trevor Ariza reportedly agreed to join the Rockets.  On the surface this appears to make Battier more valuable to Houston, as the guy he formed a battery with is gone.  But Ariza is, in many ways, a younger, cheaper Battier.  They could use a contrast there.

I would also argue that Battier is a better fit in Portland than anyone we've considered so far, including Hedo Turkoglu.  His defense, distance shooting, smarts, dependability, and seamless blending would be huge assets.  He's also relatively inexpensive at $6.9 million in the coming season and $7.4 million the season after.  He's not going to help the offense the same way Turkoglu would which would mean the Blazers would probably have to upgrade offensively at point guard.  But with Battier in the fold you might not be afraid to take on an offensive-minded point.  The backcourt would be weak defensively but Batiier, Aldridge, and Przybilla/Oden (provided neither went in the deal) would be plenty intimidating at the big positions.  I wouldn't scream at all about Andre Miller being added to this mix, for instance, nor Ramon Sessions (if he's leaving Milwaukee).

Dreamshake's initial offer which you can read here is Battier for Rudy Fernandez and Travis Outlaw.  You can see where that makes a certain amount of sense for them.  They get younger.  They get scoring.  You can also see how highly they value Battier.  Unfortunately Portland fans value Rudy just as highly.  Given that and the comparative ages of the players involved that's probably a no-go from our end.

However they are in the market for counter-offers.  That's where you come in.  What would you offer them at this point for Battier?  And would you rather have him than Hedo?

A couple of suggestions:

1.  One comment over there suggested Rudy and Oden for Battier.  If that rubs you the wrong way (and it does me) don't do that in return.  Remember that until events changed Battier was all but untouchable.  He has value to them.

2.  Don't forget that they'd put high value on a center right now.  If you're willing to part with Przybilla he could be attractive.

3.  Remember Battier's salary is only $6.9 million.  You can cushion the trade with cap space from our end but they don't have any.  They can only take on so much salary.

In slight contravention of Point #3 I'm going to offer my own possible scenario.  If the Rockets were willing to send back Brent Barry's $1.9 million salary in the deal (likely with the understanding that he'd be cut) they're starting to flirt with the possible salary range of one Hedo Turkoglu.  At this point I believe Hedo would do the Rockets more good than Battier.  That would be among my possible offers.  The hitch is that CBA rules would prevent the trade from being consummated until December 15th, which is after the season starts.  That would probably kill it for now but it could be an issue re-visited during or after the upcoming season.

Lend us whatever wisdom you have.

--Dave (blazersub@yahoo.com)

Was holding off a bit to wait for confirmation on the dollars...

Looks like Ron Artest is headed to LA LA for 3 years and $18 million. Ken Berger broke this story.

Trading jerseys with Ron somewhere over New Mexico will be Trevor Ariza, who is getting 5 years and $33.5 million. I believe Marc Stein broke this one.

The pressure for KP to lock down Hedo goes up by the signing.

-- Ben (benjamin.golliver@gmail.com)

Update: Here's a link to Jason Quick's lengthy rundown of today's events.

Blazers coach Nate McMillan and Pritchard are both convinced that Turkoglu is the right piece to push the young and successful Blazers over the top and into championship contenders. Portland had 54 wins last season but was ousted in the first round of the playoffs by Houston, which suffocated Blazers stars Brandon Roy and LaMarcus Aldridge with double teams. With Turkoglu, the Blazers figure they will be a tough team to defend.

McMillan, who dined with Turkoglu on Wednesday night in Orlando, has been emphatic in his endorsement of Turkoglu, urging Pritchard to seal the deal. Pritchard meanwhile said he grew to admire Turkoglu even more this spring while watching him help Orlando reach the NBA Finals.

...

The Blazers' minds are made up. Turkoglu is the one. In the hours remaining until he leaves Saturday, the team must convince Turkoglu the Blazers are the right team for him.

Oregonlive.com has posted the following video from Joel Odom.  

The video shows Hedo Turkoglu's arrival to PDX; also shown are the four horsemen -- Kevin Pritchard, Tom Penn, Mike Born, and Chad Buchanan. 

Here's a rough transcript.

On the Blazers...

"This team is built on a bunch of great young players... if things works out, I'll just be the experienced guy, being in different situations, being in different roles and trying to help those guys make the next step. 

Brandon Roy, LaMarcus Aldridge, they built the team around those guys.... It will be healthy for the future, for the NBA, me being added here would be the piece they've been looking for, the experienced guy on the floor that can help those guys make the next step."

Where are things now...

It's hard for me to say right now about the stiuation, I'm just happy to be here. Just see the situation, what's best for both of us. Hopefully at the end we'll have some agreement."

Is money important...

"Of course money is important. We can't kid ourselves. On the money side you have to look what's best for you basketball wise. Where you stop and then where you can continue to build on. For me coming over here is a chance for me to have that kind of run I've been having for a few years."

When do you expect a resolution...

"The sooner is better. Then I can really schedule myself this summer, where I'm going to be, where I'm going to stay, where I'm going to leave... then I'll have that commitment to get to know my teammates more. Like I said I'm just going to lay it out there and see what's good for both sides."

-- Ben (benjamin.golliver@gmail.com)

At some point I expect to spontaneously combust if I read more non-news on Hedo but given that this is the first big-name free agent the Blazers have chased in years I'll keep going wall-to-wall with the link coverage.  As noted in Prez's fanpost, feel free to drop links in these threads and I'll get them up ASAP.

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This afternoon on his radio show Wheels At Work, Blazers Radio play by play announcer Brian Wheeler stated that if things continue to develop as they have been, the Blazers could potentially reach an agreement in principle with Hedo Turkoglu as early as tomorrow.

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This afternoon on 1080 The Fan, Jason Quick said he believes there's a "96 % chance" Hedo will be a Blazer.

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Clyde Drexler weighs in on Hedo on 95.5's MSP this morning.  Download the audio here...

Obviously, he's proven himself as a very good player... he's a seasoned veteran.... Do you have a position for him? Power Forward? Small Forward? Do you play him at Point Forward? You have to have an offense designed for his calibre of play.

The Blazers are obviously young, deep and talented and have the best team for the future in the entire league...

Adding a guy like Turkoglu can only improve the chemistry. But if you add Turkoglu, who do you take out of the mix?  You've got Fernandez, who I think is just as good.  I don't get it.

John Hollinger weighs in on Hedo-to-Portland during a live chat...

I like it .. not sure I love it. He's not really a $50 million player or anything close to it, but he's probably the best fit of the players available.

Why Hedo over Ariza?

Blazers desperately want another player who can create off the dribble so they're not so ridiculously dependent on Roy, something Houston exposed in last year's playoffs. So Hedo fits -- the Blazers can even use the "no PG" lineup like Orlando did and play Rudy-Turk-Roy in the backcourt. As for Ariza, my presumption has been that LA would match any offer for Ariza, and despite the comments put out there yesterday it's not clear to me that LA really isn't willing to go past midlevel for him -- now if they can get Artest for the same money THEN I think Ariza is very portable and a team like Portland should pounce.    

What is the biggest downside of bringing in Hedo?

The fact that he's 30 and might stink in two years. That's the downside potential.

Say the Blazers sign Turk. Who do they then trade out of Bayless, Mills, Blake, Rudy, Webster, and Outlaw... you can't have all those guys... can you?

I suspect Outlaw is the one that goes .. cap-friendly with just one year left at $4 mil, and his shot-creating ability won't be needed so much.

Doug Smith of the Toronto Star...

The Raptors seem to have pulled back on a decision to take a run at Orlando's Hedo Turkoglu, who now seems a good bet to land in Portland.

Still, two NBA sources said yesterday they thought Turkoglu was more interested in landing in Toronto than the Pacific Northwest. A report yesterday afternoon that Toronto was planning some exorbitant $60 million offer, however, was debunked by a handful of sources. It would take Toronto renouncing the rights to Shawn Marion, Anthony Parker, Carlos Delfino and others to get a Turkoglu deal done and one league source said a deal with Delfino was "close."

Ken Berger of CBS Sports...

The Toronto Raptors, for one, are deliberating what it would take to make Turkoglu an offer that would top the the five-year, $50 million proposal that Portland can offer, as reported early Wednesday by CBSSports.com. According to a person familiar with the situation, the Raptors are mulling whether they would be better off making a pre-emptive strike for Turkoglu -- which would entail renouncing the rights to Shawn Marion, Carlos Delfino, and Anthony Parker -- or trying to keep those players and sign a mid-level free agent. Toronto has yet to offer an extension to 2010 free agent Chris Bosh; that decision is tied to the others. And Turkoglu isn't the only free agent Toronto is considering. League sources indicated early Thursday that the Raptors also were contemplating an offer to restricted free agent David Lee.     

Dwight Jaynes with a look at the minute crunch...

If Turkoglu comes to Portland at upwards of $9 million per season, you can expect the team to use him at least 36 minutes a game. A small portion of that time could come at power forward, of course. But the other problem for Rudy is that the Blazers are going to want playing time for their backup small forward(s) - either a developing Batum, who simply cannot ride the pines with his defensive skills, or Martell Webster, who, if he's healthy is going to be a big help with his outside shooting. Or both.    

Dwight Jaynes sums up what makes for successful "recruiting"...

Forget the tours. Don't worry about the fancy dinner or the luxury items.

Be careful about bidding against yourself, but you better acknowledge right now what it's really all about. It's always about the money. Always....

Wendell Maxey looks at the market rate being set for NBA free agents...

Ben Gordon was busy laughing all the way to the bank.

Gordon verbally agreed to a five-year, $55 million deal with the Detroit Pistons on the first day of free-agency, and in doing so set the bar far too high for the other free-agents out there looking to get paid in full.

In other words, Ben Gordon done messed the game up.

Because that's the kind of deal Hedo is looking for. 

It appears that the Blazers do indeed have an issue on their hands when it comes to Rudy.

Check out this news of a Spanish Radio interview Rudy just gave... translated and summarized by our good friend in Spain amlmart1...

Acording to Marca Rudy talked to Efe Radio:

1º.- There´re always rumors and he knows about them from the press.

2º.- He hasn´t talked to his agents about him leaving the Blazers. He has only comented with them about the possibility of Turkoglu going to Portland.

3º.- He doesn´t close doors to any team from Europe or the NBA.

4º.- Asked about whether Torkoglu going to Portland might affect his playing time, he said: I want to play. We´ll have to talk with Portland and ask them how can I do it.

Also from amlmart1, here's a translated take on the same interview posted on ACB.com...

" Turkoglu is a Guard and we are speaking about almost six for two positions. This makes me think that the team does not give me space for my work. I have demonstrated that I could be more of a factor."

"I have been surprised with the minutes that I have played but if now they pick up a player in my position, that will stop my progression, and what I want is minutes so I can improve."

Nate Jones talks about Ariza in Portland (scroll down or click here for Dave's take)...

Turk is also on the wrong side of 30. I've never been a fan of giving long term deals to non-elite perimeter players over the age of 30. 

In contrast, Trevor Ariza does not need the ball in his hands to be effective. On offense he gets his points by slashing to the bucket, picking up garbage put-backs around the rim and hitting spot-up 3s. Also, he's an absolute defensive stud that would help the Blazers in their struggles of guarding some of the league's quicker PGs. He's also only 24 years old. 

On top of that, stealing Ariza away from the Lakers would weaken the Blazers' toughest conference foe.    

Raptor Blog has this analysis...

Hedo Turkoglu, 30 years old - The greatest Turkish player in NBA history is one of the hottest commodities on the free agent market. Strengths: Hedo is a savvy, gifted offensive player who can contribute both as a scorer and playmaker. Weaknesses: It's a testament to Dwight Howard's impact that the Magic were able to disguise what a mediocre defender he is. Also, he's incredibly overrated as a clutch shooter. 

The Dino Nation Blog has come out against Hedo...

According to many sources I am suppose to believe Bryan Colangelo is willing to pass out 50 to 60 million dollars toHedo? That is a hell of a lot of pizza money. Portland and the Raps said to be the front runners. This is one time I am cheering really hard for Raptors to lose. Because if you lose in the end you will really win. That sounds very Yogi Berra like did it not?    

Max Handelman of Beyond Bowie writes...

It's funny how conventional wisdom so quickly coalesces, and hardens into an almost impenetrable truth. Right now, in Blazerville, support for signing Hedo Turkoglu (to a reported 5-year, $50 million contract) is probably running at about 10-1.    

Where is that number coming from? Sean's Oregonlive poll today has it roughly 50/50. Our previous polls this week have been regularly Anti-Hedo.

John Canzano had a piece about pizza and water. 

-- Ben (benjamin.golliver@gmail.com)

As Blazer Ninja pointed out in a Fanshot, RealGM has reposted a YahooSports Twitter saying that league executives feel that either Toronto or Portland, whichever team loses out on Hedo Turkoglu, will offer a $32-$40 million contract to L*kers reserve Trevor Ariza.

Now obviously this information is now fourth-hand...from Blazer Ninja through RealGM through Twitter through unnamed executives.  Take it as such.  Although I'd stake my life on Blazer Ninja's credibility I wouldn't be surprised to see the hand of Ariza's agent in there somewhere.  But if there's a grain of truth to it...sheesh!

Look...I love Trevor Ariza.  I think he'd be the kind of player who could add to Portland's mix without disrupting much or demanding the ball.  He's young, athletic, and defensive-minded.  He'd be a really solid pick-up.  But $32-$40 million?!?  That better be a 16-year contract.

I mean, the guy made $3.1 million last year.  Even with his contributions he's probably going to end up a reserve.  For that kind of scratch you better end up with a starter, if not a productive one.  You're going to end up tacking on a luxury tax premium on that kind of deal.  I don't think you pay 2-for-1 for Trevor Ariza no matter how much you like him.  One of his main drawing cards is that he's a role player who produces more than he costs.  You love him precisely because he's a value guy.  If he's pulling down $8-10 million per year how much do you have to pay Outlaw or Webster, let alone Bayless and Rudy eventually?

And speaking of Rudy...you thought he was frustrated with the Blazers maybe picking up Turkoglu?  Wait until the bump on the back of his head starts throbbing.

I'm all for Ariza, or a guy like Ariza, but not at that price.  One thing I assume the Blazers know is that you can really get burned overpaying for players off of successful teams that those successful teams also deemed not feasible to keep.

--Dave (blazersub@yahoo.com)

The Hedo Turkoglu thing has such momentum right now that I'm not even going to try to fight it.  We said what we had to say on the subject a couple days ago.  I'll let the sidebar posts and the approximately one billion media references speak for themselves.  Enjoy the whirlwind!

However I did want to get in a couple simple posts.  The Rasheed Wallace one is right below this.  This one covers a question that's been asked multiple times over the last couple of weeks:  Is it possible for the Blazers to trade or release players (say Steve Blake, for instance), have them cut from the team they're traded to, and then pick them up again?  Is it possible to re-sign Channing Frye now that he's released?

The answer to either question is "probably not".  The basis of that answer is the assumption that the Blazers will make moves while under the salary cap this summer.  Most trades featuring Blake are assumed to transpire under the cap or at least in conjuction (or in the wake of) moves that transpire under the cap...signing Turkoglu for instance.  In like fashion Channing Frye was released specifically so the Blazers could get under the cap.

Here's the deal, though.  The Blazers aren't actually under the cap until they make a couple extra moves.  Technically speaking Portland's potential free agents are still registered as cap holds.  The hold of Raef LaFrentz alone is over $19 million.  Portland will have to renounce the rights to LaFrentz, Michael Ruffin, and Shavlik Randolph in order to make full use of their potential cap space.  But even then the Blazers aren't out of the woods.  Portland still has exceptions--the mid-level exception at around $5 million, the bi-annual veteran's exception around $1.2 million, and a trade exception around $3 million (plus another possible small trade exception from the Sergio-to-Sacramento deal)--which all count as cap holds as well.  [Edit:  We now have that small trade exception in the Sergio deal confirmed by a team source.]  That's close to $10 million in cap holds, which puts the Blazers over the cap.  In order to make a trade as a team beneath the cap threshold or to sign free agents using cap space Portland will also have to renounce those exceptions for the year.

In other words, if you trade Blake for Hinrich using Portland's extra cap space to make the deal work you first have to renounce those exceptions.  If you want $8 million to offer Hedo Turkoglu you first have to renounce those exceptions.  And no, you do not get those exceptions back after you've signed Hedo and are now at the cap limit.  You have renounce them for the entire season before you can use your cap space to sign Turkoglu.

In this light it becomes obvious why you can't trade or release a player and then get him back.  You trade Blake for Hinrich and use your available cap space to make that deal.  With Hinrich coming in you are now at the cap limit.  What money can you give to Blake?  You have no mid-level exception this year, nor the bi-annual.  You have no way to offer him a contract.

Similarly you renounced Channing Frye to get cap space.  The only way you could sign him again would be to use that same cap space to get him back.  As with Blake, once you've used the cap space Channing's departure created you don't have any room to sign him again.

The only way this scenario would work would be if the Blazers never went under the cap.  They'd then be able to make use of their exceptions just like any over-the-cap team.  They'd have to trade Blake to Chicago in the usual over-the-cap fashion (matching salaries within 125%+$100,000), wait for the Bulls to release him, and then use one of their cap exceptions to re-sign him.  But in this case there are no free-agent signings beyond what you can get with those exceptions.  (Hint:  That ain't Turkoglu.)  There are no moves requiring extra cap space to facilitate.  You never get any cap space to work with.  It's highly unlikely that the Blazers will choose to do business this way.

For all intents and purposes when one of the current Blazers is traded or released he's gone...at least until 2010-11 when Portland's cap exceptions will reset.

--Dave (blazersub@yahoo.com)